Related papers: Bayesian Inference and Global Sensitivity Analysis…
The solar wind speed plays a key role in the transport of CME out of the Sun and ultimately determines the arrival time of CME-driven shocks in the heliosphere. Here, we develop an empirical model of the solar wind parameters at the inner…
Deep learning is gaining increasing popularity for spatiotemporal forecasting. However, prior works have mostly focused on point estimates without quantifying the uncertainty of the predictions. In high stakes domains, being able to…
Inspired by the concept of relativity of simultaneity used in the theory of special relativity, a new approach is proposed to simulate future solar wind conditions at any point in the inner solar system. An important distinctive feature of…
Climate models are generally calibrated manually by comparing selected climate statistics, such as the global top-of-atmosphere energy balance, to observations. The manual tuning only targets a limited subset of observational data and…
This study aims to improve the spatial representation of uncertainties when regressing surface wind speeds from large-scale atmospheric predictors for sub-seasonal forecasting. Sub-seasonal forecasting often relies on large-scale…
Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric…
In inverse problems, uncertainty quantification (UQ) deals with a probabilistic description of the solution nonuniqueness and data noise sensitivity. Setting seismic imaging into a Bayesian framework allows for a principled way of studying…
Knowledge about the background solar wind plays a crucial role in the framework of space weather forecasting. In-situ measurements of the background solar wind are only available for a few points in the heliosphere where spacecraft are…
We employ Parker Solar Probe (PSP) observations during the latest solar minimum period (years 2018 -2021) to calibrate the version of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal model used in the European space weather forecasting tool EUHFORIA.…
The solar wind which arrives at any location in the solar system is, in principle, relatable to the outflow of solar plasma from a single source location. This source location, itself usually being part of a larger coronal hole, is…
The variability in the magnetic activity of the Sun is the main source of the observed changes in the plasma and electromagnetic environments within the heliosphere. The primary way in which solar activity affects the Earth's environment is…
Studying solar wind conditions is central to forecasting impact of space weather on Earth. Under the assumption that the structure of this wind is constant in time and corotates with the Sun, solar wind and thereby space weather forecasts…
Using a cyclotron based model problem, we demonstrate for the first time the applicability and usefulness of a uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach in order to construct surrogate models for quantities such as emittance, energy spread…
In this study, we focus on improving EUHFORIA (European Heliospheric Forecasting Information Asset), a recently developed 3D MHD space weather prediction tool. EUHFORIA consists of two parts, covering two spatial domains; the solar corona…
The transition from non-renewable to renewable energies represents a global societal challenge, and developing a sustainable energy portfolio is an especially daunting task for developing countries where little to no information is…
Accurate forecasting of the solar wind has grown in importance as society becomes increasingly dependent on technology that is susceptible to space weather events. This work describes an inner boundary condition for ambient solar wind…
Solar wind charged particles interact with diffuse gas within the heliosphere, producing soft X-rays. This solar wind charge exchange (SWCX) process produces foreground emission that complicates interpretation of X-ray observations. In this…
Decades of in-situ solar wind measurements have clearly established the variation of solar wind physical parameters. These variable parameters have been used to classify the solar wind magnetized plasma into different types leading to…
Atmospheric aerosols influence the Earth's climate, primarily by affecting cloud formation and scattering visible radiation. However, aerosol-related physical processes in climate simulations are highly uncertain. Constraining these…
Reliable short horizon forecasting of solar and wind generation is a structural prerequisite of any modern power system yet most published forecasters are tuned and evaluated on a single climatic regime and most algorithmic novelty has been…