Related papers: Normalized logistic wavelets: Applications to COVI…
In this article, we deal with COVID-19 data to study the trend of the epidemic at the global situation. Choosing the mortality rate as an appropriate metric which measures the relative relation between the cumulative confirmed cases and…
Italy reports some of the lowest levels of mortality in the developed world. Recent evidence, however, suggests that even in low mortality countries improvements may be slowing and regional inequalities widening. This study contributes new…
The importance of spatial networks in the spread of an epidemic is an essential aspect in modeling the dynamics of an infectious disease. Additionally, any realistic data-driven model must take into account the large uncertainty in the…
This paper presents a cross-country comparison of significant predictors of small business failure between Italy and the UK. Financial measures of profitability, leverage, coverage, liquidity, scale and non-financial information are…
The paper deals with generalized functional regression. The aim is to estimate the influence of covariates on observations, drawn from an exponential distribution. The link considered has a semiparametric expression: if we are interested in…
The demographic factors have a substantial impact on the overall casualties caused by the COVID-19. In this study, the spatial association between the key demographic variables and COVID-19 cases and deaths were analyzed using the spatial…
We propose a novel data-driven framework for assessing the a-priori epidemic risk of a geographical area and for identifying high-risk areas within a country. Our risk index is evaluated as a function of three different components: the…
The Italian government has been one of the most responsive to COVID-19 emergency, through the adoption of quick and increasingly stringent measures to contain the outbreak. Despite this, Italy has suffered a huge human and social cost,…
Numerous COVID-19 clinical decision support systems have been developed. However many of these systems do not have the merit for validity due to methodological shortcomings including algorithmic bias. Methods Logistic regression models were…
I present three types of applications of generalized additive models (GAMs) to COVID-19 mortality rates in the US for the purpose of advancing methods to document inequities with respect to which communities suffered disproportionate…
We study a simple realistic model for describing the diffusion of an infectious disease on a population of individuals. The dynamics is governed by a single functional delay differential equation, which, in the case of a large population,…
Accurate modeling of lockdown effects on SARS-CoV-2 epidemic evolution is a key issue in order e.g. to inform health-care decisions on emergency management. The compartmental and spatial models so far proposed use parametric descriptions of…
This work provides an overview on deterministic and stochastic models that have previously been proposed by us to study the transmission dynamics of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Europe and USA. Briefly, we describe realistic…
Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) is a severe ongoing novel pandemic that is spreading quickly across the world. Italy, that is widely considered one of the main epicenters of the pandemic, has registered the highest COVID-2019 death rates…
This paper estimates the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions - mainly, the lockdown - on the COVID-19 mortality rate for the case of Italy, the first Western country to impose a national shelter-in-place order. We use a new…
I propose novel partial identification bounds on infection prevalence from information on test rate and test yield. The approach utilizes user-specified bounds on (i) test accuracy and (ii) the extent to which tests are targeted, formalized…
Since the first outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic at the end of 2019, data has been made available on the number of infections, deaths and recoveries for all countries of the World, and that data can be used for statistical analysis. The…
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused more than 8 million confirmed cases and 500,000 death to date. In response to this emergency, many countries have introduced a series of social-distancing measures including lockdowns and businesses'…
An epidemiological model for COVID-19 was developed and implemented in MATLAB/GNU Octave for use by public health practitioners, policy makers and the general public. The model distinguishes four stages in the disease: infected, sick,…
This paper introduces new methods to analyze the changing progression of COVID-19 cases to deaths in different waves of the pandemic. First, an algorithmic approach partitions each country or state's COVID-19 time series into a first wave…