Related papers: Normalized logistic wavelets: Applications to COVI…
Understanding how widely COVID-19 has spread is critical for examining the pandemic's progression. Despite efforts to carefully monitor the pandemic, the number of confirmed cases may underestimate the total number of infections. We…
In a recent report we have collected some data about the COVID-19 epidemics in Northern Italy; in this follow-up we analyze how these changed after the mild restrictive measures taken by the Government two weeks ago and the large campaign…
The Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of COVID-19 is difficult to estimate because the number of infections is unknown and there is a lag between each infection and the potentially subsequent death. We introduce a new approach for estimating…
The rapid finding of effective therapeutics requires the efficient use of available resources in clinical trials. The use of covariate adjustment can yield statistical estimates with improved precision, resulting in a reduction in the…
Evaluating hospitals' performance and its relation to patients' characteristics is of utmost importance to ensure timely, effective, and optimal treatment. Such a matter is particularly relevant in areas and situations where the healthcare…
Since November 6$^{\mathrm{th}}$, 2020, Italian regions have been classified according to four levels, corresponding to specific risk scenarios, for which specific restrictive measures have been foreseen. By analyzing the time evolution of…
We investigate the possibility of a harvesting effect, i.e. a temporary forward shift in mortality, associated with the COVID-19 pandemic by looking at the excess mortality trends of an area that registered one of the highest death tolls in…
Initially emerged in the Chinese city Wuhan and subsequently spread almost worldwide causing a pandemic, the SARS-CoV-2 virus follows reasonably well the SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) epidemic model on contact networks in the…
The dataset described in this paper contains daily data about COVID-19 cases that occurred in Italy over the period from Jan. 28, 2020 to March 20, 2021, divided into ten age classes of the population, the first class being 0-9 years, the…
Detecting changes in COVID-19 disease transmission over time is a key indicator of epidemic growth.Near real-time monitoring of the pandemic growth is crucial for policy makers and public health officials who need to make informed decisions…
This paper is concerned with the design of intermittent non-pharmaceutical strategies to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic exploiting network epidemiological models. Specifically, by studying a variational equation for the…
In this work, a proposal to forecast the populations using generalized logistics regression curve fitting is presented. This type of curve is used to study population growth, in this case population of people infected with the Covid-19…
The analysis of complex longitudinal data such as COVID-19 deaths is challenging due to several inherent features: (i) Similarly-shaped profiles with different decay patterns; (ii) Unexplained variation among repeated measurements within…
We studied the weekly number and the growth decline rates of COVID-19 deaths of the period from October 31, 2022 to February 9, 2023, in Italy, finding that that COVID 19 winter wave reached its peak during the three holiday weeks from…
When a new environmental policy or a specific intervention is taken in order to improve air quality, it is paramount to assess and quantify - in space and time - the effectiveness of the adopted strategy. The lockdown measures taken…
The Nonlinear Grey Bernoulli Model NGBM(1, 1) is a recently developed grey model which has various applications in different fields, mainly due to its accuracy in handling small time-series datasets with nonlinear variations. In this paper,…
The paper introduces an approach to identify a set of spatially constrained homogeneous areas maximally homogeneous in terms of epidemic trends. The proposed hierarchical algorithm is based on the Dynamic TimeWarping distances between…
We have proposed an SEIR compartmental mathematical model. The prime objective of this study is to analyze and forecast the pandemic in Italy for the upcoming months. The basic reproduction number has been calculated. Based on the current…
Background. The paper concerns the SARS-CoV2 (COVID-19) pandemic that, starting from the end of February 2020, began spreading along the Italian peninsula, by first attacking small communities in north regions, and then extending to the…
Using the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemiological model, an analytical formula is derived for the number of beds occupied by Covid-19 patients. The analytical curve is fitted to data in Belgium, France, New York City and…