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We consider the problem of statistical learning for the intensity of a counting process with covariates. In this context, we introduce an empirical risk, and prove risk bounds for the corresponding empirical risk minimizers. Then, we give…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-30 Stéphane Gaïffas , Agathe Guilloux

In this paper, we present Partially Stochastic Infinitely Deep Bayesian Neural Networks, a novel family of architectures that integrates partial stochasticity into the framework of infinitely deep neural networks. Our new class of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-16 Sergio Calvo-Ordonez , Matthieu Meunier , Francesco Piatti , Yuantao Shi

The generative aspect model is an extension of the multinomial model for text that allows word probabilities to vary stochastically across documents. Previous results with aspect models have been promising, but hindered by the computational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Thomas P. Minka , John Lafferty

Estimating the effective sample size (ESS) of a prior distribution is an age-old yet pivotal challenge, with great implications for clinical trials and various biomedical applications. Although numerous endeavors have been dedicated to this…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-23 Han Wang , Yan Dora Zhang , Guosheng Yin

In this article we establish exponential moment bounds, moment bounds in fractional order smoothness spaces, a uniform H\"older continuity in time, and strong convergence rates for a class of fully discrete exponential Euler-type numerical…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-11-02 Arnulf Jentzen , Felix Lindner , Primož Pušnik

Covariate balance is a conventional key diagnostic for methods used estimating causal effects from observational studies. Recently, there is an emerging interest in directly incorporating covariate balance in the estimation. We study a…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-14 Qingyuan Zhao , Daniel Percival

In this paper we consider the estimation of unknown parameters in Bayesian inverse problems. In most cases of practical interest, there are several barriers to performing such estimation, This includes a numerical approximation of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-07 Neil K. Chada , Ajay Jasra , Mohamed Maama , Raul Tempone

Though the notion of exchangeability has been discussed in the causal inference literature under various guises, it has rarely taken its original meaning as a symmetry property of probability distributions. As this property is a standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-04 Olli Saarela , David A. Stephens , Erica E. M. Moodie

Exchangeability -- in which the distribution of an infinite sequence is invariant to reorderings of its elements -- implies the existence of a simple conditional independence structure that may be leveraged in the design of statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-25 Trevor Campbell , Saifuddin Syed , Chiao-Yu Yang , Michael I. Jordan , Tamara Broderick

This paper motivates the use of random-bridges -- stochastic processes conditioned to take target distributions at fixed timepoints -- in the realm of generative modelling. Herein, random-bridges can act as stochastic transports between two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Stefano Goria , Levent A. Mengütürk , Murat C. Mengütürk , Berkan Sesen

Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk and Conditional Autoregressive Expectile have become two popular approaches for direct measurement of market risk. Since their introduction several improvements both in the Bayesian and in the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-10-01 Marco Bottone , Mauro Bernardi , Lea Petrella

There is accumulating evidence in the literature that stability of learning algorithms is a key characteristic that permits a learning algorithm to generalize. Despite various insightful results in this direction, there seems to be an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-10 Karim Abou-Moustafa , Csaba Szepesvari

We show that the Bernstein-Hoeffding method can be employed to a larger class of generalized moments. This class includes the exponential moments whose properties play a key role in the proof of a well-known inequality of Wassily Hoeffding,…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-02 Christos Pelekis , Jan Ramon , Yuyi Wang

How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-13 Diederik P Kingma , Max Welling

We study a nonlocal balance equation that describes the evolution of a system consisting of infinitely many identical particles those move along a deterministic dynamics and can also either disappear or give a spring. In this case, the…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2024-05-22 Yurii Averboukh

This thesis studies high-dimensional, continuous-valued pairwise Markov Random Fields. We are particularly interested in approximating pairwise densities whose logarithm belongs to a Sobolev space. For this problem we propose the method of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-12 Eric Janofsky

Optimization is becoming increasingly common in scientific and engineering domains. Oftentimes, these problems involve various levels of stochasticity or uncertainty in generating proposed solutions. Therefore, optimization in these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-05 Peter D. Tonner , Daniel V. Samarov , A. Gilad Kusne

We consider the common setting where one observes probability estimates for a large number of events, such as default risks for numerous bonds. Unfortunately, even with unbiased estimates, selecting events corresponding to the most extreme…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-14 Gareth M. James , Peter Radchenko , Bradley Rava

Application of deep neural networks to medical imaging tasks has in some sense become commonplace. Still, a "thorn in the side" of the deep learning movement is the argument that deep networks are prone to overfitting and are thus unable to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-12 Anthony Sicilia , Xingchen Zhao , Anastasia Sosnovskikh , Seong Jae Hwang

Transfer learning has received a lot of attention in the machine learning community over the last years, and several effective algorithms have been developed. However, relatively little is known about their theoretical properties,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-05-13 Anastasia Pentina , Christoph H. Lampert