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Learning personalized decision policies that generalize to the target population is of great relevance. Since training data is often not representative of the target population, standard policy learning methods may yield policies that do…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-03 Tobias Hatt , Daniel Tschernutter , Stefan Feuerriegel

Empirical research shows that individuals' responses to treatments vary along latent characteristics, such as innate ability or motivation. Therefore, a policymaker seeking to maximize welfare may consider designing policies based on…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-06 Giacomo Opocher

In many areas, practitioners seek to use observational data to learn a treatment assignment policy that satisfies application-specific constraints, such as budget, fairness, simplicity, or other functional form constraints. For example,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-08 Susan Athey , Stefan Wager

The beneficial effects of treatments vary across individuals in most studies. Treatment heterogeneity motivates practitioners to search for the optimal policy based on personal characteristics. A long-standing common practice in policy…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-06 Xuqiao Li , Ying Yan

The empirical risk minimization approach to data-driven decision making requires access to training data drawn under the same conditions as those that will be faced when the decision rule is deployed. However, in a number of settings, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Roshni Sahoo , Lihua Lei , Stefan Wager

While the importance of personalized policymaking is widely recognized, fully personalized implementation remains rare in practice, often due to legal, fairness or cost concerns. We study the problem of policy targeting for a regret-averse…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-07 Toru Kitagawa , Sokbae Lee , Chen Qiu

Policy learning can be used to extract individualized treatment regimes from observational data in healthcare, civics, e-commerce, and beyond. One big hurdle to policy learning is a commonplace lack of overlap in the data for different…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-04 Nathan Kallus

We apply classical statistical decision theory to a large class of treatment choice problems with partial identification. We show that, in a general class of problems with Gaussian likelihood, all decision rules are admissible; it is…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-24 José Luis Montiel Olea , Chen Qiu , Jörg Stoye

In many settings, a decision-maker wishes to learn a rule, or policy, that maps from observable characteristics of an individual to an action. Examples include selecting offers, prices, advertisements, or emails to send to consumers, as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-20 Zhengyuan Zhou , Susan Athey , Stefan Wager

Consider a setup in which a decision maker is informed about the population by a finite sample and based on that sample has to decide whether or not to apply a certain treatment. We work out finite sample minimax regret treatment rules…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-08 Patrik Guggenberger , Nihal Mehta , Nikita Pavlov

I consider a class of statistical decision problems in which the policymaker must decide between two policies to maximize social welfare (e.g., the population mean of an outcome) based on a finite sample. The framework introduced in this…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-04 Kohei Yata

I study the problem of a decision maker choosing a policy which allocates treatment to a heterogeneous population on the basis of experimental data that includes only a subset of possible treatment values. The effects of new treatments are…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-17 Samuel Higbee

A decision maker typically (i) incorporates training data to learn about the relative effectiveness of treatments, and (ii) chooses an implementation mechanism that implies an ``optimal'' predicted outcome distribution according to some…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-29 Anders Bredahl Kock , David Preinerstorfer

We study the problem of a decision maker who must provide the best possible treatment recommendation based on an experiment. The desirability of the outcome distribution resulting from the policy recommendation is measured through a…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-04-06 Anders Bredahl Kock , David Preinerstorfer , Bezirgen Veliyev

Randomized trials, also known as A/B tests, are used to select between two policies: a control and a treatment. Given a corresponding set of features, we can ideally learn an optimized policy P that maps the A/B test data features to action…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-08 Elon Portugaly , Joseph J. Pfeiffer

This paper studies a penalized statistical decision rule for the treatment assignment problem. Consider the setting of a utilitarian policy maker who must use sample data to allocate a binary treatment to members of a population, based on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-10 Eric Mbakop , Max Tabord-Meehan

We study the problem of choosing optimal policy rules in uncertain environments using models that may be incomplete and/or partially identified. We consider a policymaker who wishes to choose a policy to maximize a particular counterfactual…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-12-22 Thomas M. Russell

Transfer learning of prediction models has been extensively studied, while the corresponding policy learning approaches are rarely discussed. In this paper, we propose principled approaches for learning the optimal policy in the target…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Xueqing Liu , Qinwei Yang , Zhaoqing Tian , Ruocheng Guo , Peng Wu

We study sequential experiments where sampling is costly and a decision-maker aims to determine the best treatment for full scale implementation by (1) adaptively allocating units between two possible treatments, and (2) stopping the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-06 Karun Adusumilli

Machine learning is increasingly used to select which individuals receive limited-resource interventions in domains such as human services, education, development, and more. However, it is often not apparent what the right quantity is for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-20 Vibhhu Sharma , Bryan Wilder
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