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Uncertainty quantification is crucial to decision-making. A prominent example is probabilistic forecasting in numerical weather prediction. The dominant approach to representing uncertainty in weather forecasting is to generate an ensemble…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Lizao Li , Rob Carver , Ignacio Lopez-Gomez , Fei Sha , John Anderson

Global climate models are essential tools to simulate past and potential future pathways of climate change, as well as associated climate impacts. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) describe a range of future scenarios of global economic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Graham Clyne , Julia Kaltenborn , Peer Nowack , Claire Monteleoni , Anasatase Charantonis

Accurate long-range forecasting of the El \Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital for global climate prediction and disaster risk management. Yet, limited understanding of ENSO's physical mechanisms constrains both numerical and deep…

The generation of initial conditions via accurate data assimilation is crucial for weather forecasting and climate modeling. We propose DiffDA as a denoising diffusion model capable of assimilating atmospheric variables using predicted…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-06-11 Langwen Huang , Lukas Gianinazzi , Yuejiang Yu , Peter D. Dueben , Torsten Hoefler

We introduce a novel deep learning approach that harnesses the power of generative artificial intelligence to enhance the accuracy of contextual forecasting in sewerage systems. By developing a diffusion-based model that processes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-11 Nicholas A. Pearson , Francesca Cairoli , Luca Bortolussi , Davide Russo , Francesca Zanello

Quantifying the impacts of anthropogenic global warming requires accurate Earth system model (ESM) simulations. Statistical bias correction and downscaling can be applied to reduce errors and increase the resolution of ESMs. However,…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-06-24 Philipp Hess , Niklas Boers

Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), a possible climate engineering strategy where reflective particles are injected into the stratosphere, has been explored to mitigate global warming and its associated risks, such as the intensification…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-25 Cameron Dong , James W. Hurrell , Elizabeth A. Barnes

Diffusion models offer stable training and state-of-the-art performance for deep generative modeling tasks. Here, we consider their use in the context of multivariate subsurface modeling and probabilistic inversion. We first demonstrate…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Roberto Miele , Niklas Linde

Foundation models (FMs) for the Earth system learn statistical relationships between physical variables across massive datasets to enable versatile downstream applications through finetuning, separating them from task-specific weather…

Climate models play a crucial role in understanding the effect of environmental and man-made changes on climate to help mitigate climate risks and inform governmental decisions. Large global climate models such as the Community Earth System…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-02 Niccolò Dalmasso , Galen Vincent , Dorit Hammerling , Ann B. Lee

As our planet is entering into the "global boiling" era, understanding regional climate change becomes imperative. Effective downscaling methods that provide localized insights are crucial for this target. Traditional approaches, including…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-04-08 Fenghua Ling , Zeyu Lu , Jing-Jia Luo , Lei Bai , Swadhin K. Behera , Dachao Jin , Baoxiang Pan , Huidong Jiang , Toshio Yamagata

Modelling partial differential equations (PDEs) is of crucial importance in science and engineering, and it includes tasks ranging from forecasting to inverse problems, such as data assimilation. However, most previous numerical and machine…

Regional high-resolution climate projections are crucial for many applications, such as agriculture, hydrology, and natural hazard risk assessment. Dynamical downscaling, the state-of-the-art method to produce localized future climate…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-10-03 Ignacio Lopez-Gomez , Zhong Yi Wan , Leonardo Zepeda-Núñez , Tapio Schneider , John Anderson , Fei Sha

In recent years traditional numerical methods for accurate weather prediction have been increasingly challenged by deep learning methods. Numerous historical datasets used for short and medium-range weather forecasts are typically organized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-06 Andrea Asperti , Fabio Merizzi , Alberto Paparella , Giorgio Pedrazzi , Matteo Angelinelli , Stefano Colamonaco

Traditional models of climate change use complex systems of coupled equations to simulate physical processes across the Earth system. These simulations are highly computationally expensive, limiting our predictions of climate change and…

Climate change is causing the intensification of rainfall extremes. Precipitation projections with high spatial resolution are important for society to prepare for these changes, e.g. to model flooding impacts. Physics-based simulations for…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-11-30 Henry Addison , Elizabeth Kendon , Suman Ravuri , Laurence Aitchison , Peter AG Watson

Full-complexity Earth system models (ESMs) are computationally very expensive, limiting their use in exploring the climate outcomes of multiple emission pathways. More efficient emulators that approximate ESMs can directly map emissions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Björn Lütjens , Raffaele Ferrari , Duncan Watson-Parris , Noelle Selin

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-14 Marc Finzi , Anudhyan Boral , Andrew Gordon Wilson , Fei Sha , Leonardo Zepeda-Núñez

Renewable resources are strongly dependent on local and large-scale weather situations. Skillful subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts -- beyond two weeks and up to two months -- can offer significant socioeconomic advantages to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Maximilian Springenberg , Noelia Otero , Yuxin Xue , Jackie Ma

Weather forecasting remains a crucial yet challenging domain, where recently developed models based on deep learning (DL) have approached the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. However, these DL models,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-02-13 Zhanxiang Hua , Yutong He , Chengqian Ma , Alexandra Anderson-Frey