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In a recent article the authors obtained a formula which relates explicitly the tail of risk neutral returns with the wing behavior of the Black Scholes implied volatility smile. In situations where precise tail asymptotics are unknown but…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Shalom Benaim , Peter Friz

The tacnode process is a universal determinantal point process arising from non-intersecting particle systems and tiling problems. It is the aim of this work to explore the integrable structure and large gap asymptotics for the gap…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2023-07-13 Luming Yao , Lun Zhang

A complete and user-friendly directory of tails of Archimedean copulas is presented which can be used in the selection and construction of appropriate models with desired properties. The results are synthesized in the form of a decision…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-01-13 Arthur Charpentier , Johan Segers

We derive tail asymptotics for the running maximum of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process. The main result is proved by the saddle point method, where the tail estimate uses a new monotonicity property of the Kummer function. This auxiliary…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-23 Stefan Gerhold , Friedrich Hubalek , Richard B. Paris

We consider sums of $n$ i.i.d. random variables with tails close to $\exp\{-x^\beta\}$ for some $\beta>1$. Asymptotics developed by Rootz\'en (1987) and Balkema, Kl\"uppelberg & Resnick (1993) are discussed from the point of view of tails…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-13 Søren Asmussen , Enkelejd Hashorva , Patrick J. Laub , Thomas Taimre

Despite the widespread occurrence of classification problems and the increasing collection of point process data across many disciplines, study of error probability for point process classification only emerged very recently. Here, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-01 Xinhui Rong , Victor Solo

Hawkes process is a simple point process that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, neuroscience, social networks,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-02 Xuefeng Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

We study the behavior of bivariate empirical copula process $\mathbb{G}_n(\cdot,\cdot)$ on pavements $[0,k_n/n]^2$ of $[0,1]^2,$ where $k_n$ is a sequence of positive constants fulfilling some conditions. We provide a upper bound for the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-03-06 Salim Bouzebda , Tarek Zari

We consider two different portfolios of proportional reinsurance of the same pool of risks. This contribution is concerned with Gaussian-like risks, which means that for large values the survival function of such risks is, up to a…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-05-06 Julia Farkas , Enkelejd Hashorva

The present paper is a sequel to and generalization of Fung and Seneta (2016) whose main result gives the asymptotic behaviour as $ u \to 0^{+}$ of $\lambda_L(u) = P(X_1 \leq F_1^{-1}(u) | X_2 \leq F_2^{-1}(u)),$ when $\bf{X} \sim…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-05 Thomas Fung , Eugene Seneta

We investigate the tail asymptotics of the supremum of X(t)+Y(t)-ct, where X={X(t),t\geq 0} and Y={Y(t),t\geq 0} are two independent stochastic processes. We assume that the process Y has subexponential characteristics and that the process…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Bert Zwart , Sem Borst , Krzystof Debicki

Tail dependence refers to clustering of extreme events. In the context of financial risk management, the clustering of high-severity risks has a devastating effect on the well-being of firms and is thus of pivotal importance in risk…

Applications · Statistics 2016-07-19 Edward Furman , Alexey Kuznetsov , Jianxi Su , Ricardas Zitikis

Finite excursions away from zero of a spectrally positive compound Poisson process with a negative drift can always be decomposed into two parts lying above and below zero, respectively. This paper is concerned with the asymptotic…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-24 Zhi-Hao Cui , Hao Wu

A network belongs to the monotone separable class if its state variables are homogeneous and monotone functions of the epochs of the arrival process. This framework contains several classical queueing network models, including generalized…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Marc Lelarge

Recently, the complete left tail asymptotic for the density of the {\it martingale limit} of the classical Galton-Watson process has been derived. The derivation is based on the properties of a special function (whose inverse Fourier…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-24 Anton A Kutsenko

We provide the exact large-time behavior of the tail distribution of the extinction time of a self-similar fragmentation process with a negative index of self-similarity, improving thus a previous result on the logarithmic asymptotic…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-11-16 Bénédicte Haas

We introduce and study an alternative form of the chaotic expansion for counting processes using the Poisson imbedding representation; we name this alternative form \textit{pseudo-chaotic expansion}. As an application, we prove that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-07 Caroline Hillairet , Anthony Reveillac

The article determines the asymptotic shape of the extremal clusters in stationary regularly varying random fields. To deduce this result, we present a general framework for the Poisson approximation of point processes on Polish spaces…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-22 Bojan Basrak , Hrvoje Planinić

We derive some key extremal features for $k$th order Markov chains that can be used to understand how the process moves between an extreme state and the body of the process. The chains are studied given that there is an exceedance of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-27 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Adrian Casey , Jonathan A. Tawn

We study tails of the supremum of a perturbed random walk under regime which was not yet considered in the literature. Our approach is based on a new renewal theorem, which is of independent interest. We obtain first and second order…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-12 Ewa Damek , Bartosz Kołodziejek