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Investigators often evaluate treatment effects by considering settings in which all individuals are assigned a treatment of interest, assuming that an unlimited number of treatment units are available. However, many real-life treatments are…

Difference-in-differences (DID) approaches are widely used for estimating causal effects with observational data before and after an intervention. DID traditionally estimates the average treatment effect among the treated after making a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Julia C. Thome , Andrew J. Spieker , Peter F. Rebeiro , Chun Li , Tong Li , Bryan E. Shepherd

This study proposes an end-to-end algorithm for policy learning in causal inference. We observe data consisting of covariates, treatment assignments, and outcomes, where only the outcome corresponding to the assigned treatment is observed.…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-30 Masahiro Kato

In streaming platforms churn is extremely costly, yet A/B tests are typically evaluated using outcomes observed within a limited experimental horizon. Even when both short- and predicted long-term engagement metrics are considered, they may…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Dario Simionato , Andrea Tonon , Mingxue Wang , Weiguo Wang , Tong Gui , Xiaoyue Li

In epidemiology, identifying subpopulations that are particularly vulnerable to exposures and those who may benefit differently from exposure-reducing interventions is essential. Factors such as age, gender-specific vulnerabilities, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-11 David McCoy , Wenxin Zhang , Alan Hubbard , Mark van der Laan , Alejandro Schuler

Unmeasured confounding presents a significant challenge in causal inference from observational studies. Classical approaches often rely on collecting proxy variables, such as instrumental variables. However, in applications where the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-16 Xiaochuan Shi , Dehan Kong , Linbo Wang

Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Christopher Stith , Medha Barath , Vahid Balazadeh , Jesse C. Cresswell , Rahul G. Krishnan

Causal inference is best understood using potential outcomes. This use is particularly important in more complex settings, that is, observational studies or randomized experiments with complications such as noncompliance. The topic of this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Donald B. Rubin

Health policy decisions are often informed by estimates of long-term survival based primarily on short-term data. A range of methods are available to include longer-term information, but there has previously been no comprehensive and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-05 Christopher Jackson

Post-treatment variables often complicate causal inference. They appear in many scientific problems, including noncompliance, truncation by death, mediation, and surrogate endpoint evaluation. Principal stratification is a strategy to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-04 Sizhu Lu , Zhichao Jiang , Peng Ding

Marginal structural models are a popular tool for investigating the effects of time-varying treatments, but they require an assumption of no unobserved confounders between the treatment and outcome. With observational data, this assumption…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-10 Matthew Blackwell , Soichiro Yamauchi

The difference-in-differences (DID) method identifies the average treatment effects on the treated (ATT) under mainly the so-called parallel trends (PT) assumption. The most common and widely used approach to justify the PT assumption is…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-23 Kyunghoon Ban , Désiré Kédagni

Matching is one of the most widely used causal inference frameworks in observational studies. However, all the existing matching-based causal inference methods are designed for either a single treatment with general treatment types (e.g.,…

Causal inference from observational data requires assumptions. These assumptions range from measuring confounders to identifying instruments. Traditionally, causal inference assumptions have focused on estimation of effects for a single…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-04 Rajesh Ranganath , Adler Perotte

The traditional model specification of stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trials assumes a homogeneous treatment effect across time while adjusting for fixed-time effects. However, when treatment effects vary over time, the constant effect…

This paper focuses on developing Pareto-optimal estimation and policy learning to identify the most effective treatment that maximizes the total reward from both short-term and long-term effects, which might conflict with each other. For…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-13 Yingrong Wang , Anpeng Wu , Haoxuan Li , Weiming Liu , Qiaowei Miao , Ruoxuan Xiong , Fei Wu , Kun Kuang

Flexible machine learning tools are increasingly used to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects. This paper gives an accessible tutorial demonstrating the use of the causal forest algorithm, available in the R package grf. We start with a…

Applications · Statistics 2024-12-17 Erik Sverdrup , Maria Petukhova , Stefan Wager

Observational cohort studies are increasingly being used for comparative effectiveness research to assess the safety of therapeutics. Recently, various doubly robust methods have been proposed for average treatment effect estimation by…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-11 Xiaoqing Tan , Shu Yang , Wenyu Ye , Douglas E. Faries , Ilya Lipkovich , Zbigniew Kadziola

Quantifying the causal effects of continuous exposures on outcomes of interest is critical for social, economic, health, and medical research. However, most existing software packages focus on binary exposures. We develop the CausalGPS R…

Computation · Statistics 2023-10-03 Naeem Khoshnevis , Xiao Wu , Danielle Braun

This paper combines causal mediation analysis with double machine learning to control for observed confounders in a data-driven way under a selection-on-observables assumption in a high-dimensional setting. We consider the average indirect…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-02-17 Helmut Farbmacher , Martin Huber , Lukáš Lafférs , Henrika Langen , Martin Spindler