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We present a deep learning-based approach to studying dynamic clinical behavioral regimes in diverse non-randomized healthcare settings. Our proposed methodology - deep causal behavioral policy learning (DC-BPL) - uses deep learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-06 Jonas Knecht , Anna Zink , Jonathan Kolstad , Maya Petersen

The generalized g-formula can be used to estimate the probability of survival under a sustained treatment strategy. When treatment strategies are deterministic, estimators derived from the so-called efficient influence function (EIF) for…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-10 Lan Wen , Julia Marcus , Jessica Young

Many interventions are both beneficial to initiate and harmful to stop. Traditionally, to determine whether to deploy that intervention in a time-limited way depends on if, on average, the increase in the benefits of starting it outweigh…

The estimands framework outlined in ICH E9 (R1) describes the components needed to precisely define the effects to be estimated in clinical trials, which includes how post-baseline "intercurrent" events (IEs) are to be handled. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-28 Thomas Drury , Juan J Abellan , Nicky Best , Ian R. White

The aim of this paper is to establish a causal link between the policies implemented by technology companies and the outcomes they yield within intricate temporal and/or spatial dependent experiments. We propose a novel…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-05 Shikai Luo , Ying Yang , Chengchun Shi , Fang Yao , Jieping Ye , Hongtu Zhu

In the absence of data from a randomized trial, researchers often aim to use observational data to draw causal inference about the effect of a treatment on a time-to-event outcome. In this context, interest often focuses on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-15 Ted Westling , Alex Luedtke , Peter Gilbert , Marco Carone

Causal inference is capable of estimating the treatment effect (i.e., the causal effect of treatment on the outcome) to benefit the decision making in various domains. One fundamental challenge in this research is that the treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-28 Qian Li , Zhichao Wang , Shaowu Liu , Gang Li , Guandong Xu

Longitudinal studies are frequently used in medical research and involve collecting repeated measures on individuals over time. Observations from the same individual are invariably correlated and thus an analytic approach that accounts for…

The most widely discussed methods for estimating the Average Causal Effect/Average Treatment Effect are those for intervention in discrete binary variables whose value represents intervention/non-intervention groups. On the other hand,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-21 Yoshiaki Kitazawa

Contextual sensing and delivery of digital interventions to improve health outcomes have gained significant traction in behavioral and psychiatric studies. Micro-randomized trials (MRTs) are a common experimental design for obtaining…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-01 Jieru Shi , Zhenke Wu , Walter Dempsey

A further understanding of cause and effect within observational data is critical across many domains, such as economics, health care, public policy, web mining, online advertising, and marketing campaigns. Although significant advances…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Zhixuan Chu , Sheng Li

Continuous treatments have posed a significant challenge for causal inference, both in the formulation and identification of scientifically meaningful effects and in their robust estimation. Traditionally, focus has been placed on…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-29 Nima S. Hejazi , David Benkeser , Iván Díaz , Mark J. van der Laan

Using offline observational data for policy evaluation and learning allows decision-makers to evaluate and learn a policy that connects characteristics and interventions. Most existing literature has focused on either discrete treatment…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Cheuk Hang Leung , Yiyan Huang , Yijun Li , Qi Wu

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the prediction of individualized treatment effects. While there is a rapidly growing literature on the development of such models, there is little literature on the evaluation of their…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-22 J Hoogland , O Efthimiou , TL Nguyen , TPA Debray

Health registers contain rich information about individuals' health histories. Here our interest lies in understanding how individuals' health trajectories evolve in a nationwide longitudinal dataset with coded features, such as clinical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-13 Hans Moen , Vishnu Raj , Andrius Vabalas , Markus Perola , Samuel Kaski , Andrea Ganna , Pekka Marttinen

Identifying covariates that modify treatment effects is a central problem in causal inference. Yet existing data-adaptive procedures do not provide finite-sample control over the expected number of false discoveries, risking spurious…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Omar Melikechi

Inferring causal effects of continuous-valued treatments from observational data is a crucial task promising to better inform policy- and decision-makers. A critical assumption needed to identify these effects is that all confounding…

We propose a doubly robust approach to characterizing treatment effect heterogeneity in observational studies. We develop a frequentist inferential procedure that utilizes posterior distributions for both the propensity score and outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-21 Heejun Shin , Joseph Antonelli

In this paper, we propose the use of causal inference techniques for survival function estimation and prediction for subgroups of the data, upto individual units. Tree ensemble methods, specifically random forests were modified for this…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-03-23 Vikas Ramachandra

In recent years, the growing availability of biomedical datasets featuring numerous longitudinal covariates has motivated the development of several multi-step methods for the dynamic prediction of survival outcomes. These methods employ…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-14 Mirko Signorelli , Sophie Retif