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Load forecasts have become an integral part of energy security. Due to the various influencing factors that can be considered in such a forecast, there is also a wide range of models that attempt to integrate these parameters into a system…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-19 Philipp Giese

The energy system is rapidly changing to accommodate the increasing number of renewable generators and the general transition towards a more sustainable future. Simultaneously, business models and market designs evolve, affecting power-grid…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2020-03-24 Leonardo Rydin Gorjão , Mehrnaz Anvari , Holger Kantz , Christian Beck , Dirk Witthaut , Marc Timme , Benjamin Schäfer

The interdependency of power systems and natural gas systems is being reinforced by the emerging power-to-gas facilities (PtGs), and the existing gas-fired generators. To jointly improve the efficiency and security under diverse…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-11-17 Xiaodong Zheng , Yan Xu , Zhengmao Li , Haoyong Chen

Gas-fired generators, with their ability to quickly ramp up and down their electricity production, play an important role in managing renewable energy variability. However, these changes in electricity production translate into variability…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-03-24 Conor O' Malley , Gabriela Hug , Line Roald

Short-term electricity markets are becoming more relevant due to less-predictable renewable energy sources, attracting considerable attention from the industry. The balancing market is the closest to real-time and the most volatile among…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Ciaran O'Connor , Joseph Collins , Steven Prestwich , Andrea Visentin

The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources introduces significant challenges to power grid stability, primarily due to their inherent variability. A new opportunity for grid operation is the smart integration of electricity…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-30 Janik Pinter , Frederik Zahn , Maximilian Beichter , Ralf Mikut , Veit Hagenmeyer

The study of Day-Ahead prices in the electricity market is one of the most popular problems in time series forecasting. Previous research has focused on employing increasingly complex learning algorithms to capture the sophisticated…

Applications · Statistics 2024-04-29 Carlos Sebastián , Carlos E. González-Guillén , Jesús Juan

Due to the liberalization of markets, the change in the energy mix and the surrounding energy laws, electricity research is a dynamically altering field with steadily changing challenges. One challenge especially for investment decisions is…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-12-27 Rick Steinert , Florian Ziel

This working paper presents a comprehensive study on the development and analysis of various electricity market models, focusing on continuous, discrete, and fractional-order approaches. The continuous model captures the ongoing…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-07-29 Ioannis Dassios

Our paper aims to model and forecast the electricity price by taking a completely new perspective on the data. It will be the first approach which is able to combine the insights of market structure models with extensive and modern…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2016-10-18 Florian Ziel , Rick Steinert

Electricity market price predictions enable energy market participants to shape their consumption or supply while meeting their economic and environmental objectives. By utilizing the basic properties of the supply-demand matching process…

Applications · Statistics 2019-06-11 Ana Radovanovic , Tommaso Nesti , Bokan Chen

In this paper, we propose a complete modelling framework to value several batteries in the electricity intraday market at the trading session scale. The model consists of a stochastic model for the 24 mid-prices (one price per delivery…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2024-12-23 Enzo Cognéville , Thomas Deschatre , Xavier Warin

Since the 1990s, widespread introduction of central (wholesale) electricity markets has been seen across multiple continents, driven by the search for efficient operation of the power grid through competition. The increase of renewables has…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-15 Pål Forr Austnes , Matthieu Jacobs , Lu Wang , Mario Paolone

Accurate demand forecasting is vital for ensuring reliable access to contraceptive products, supporting key processes like procurement, inventory, and distribution. However, forecasting contraceptive demand in developing countries presents…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-10 Harsha Chamara Hewage , Bahman Rostami-Tabar , Aris Syntetos , Federico Liberatore , Glenn Milano

Modeling price risks is crucial for economic decision making in energy markets. Besides the risk of a single price, the dependence structure of multiple prices is often relevant. We therefore propose a generic and easy-to-implement method…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-03-03 Oliver Grothe , Fabian Kächele , Fabian Krüger

The growing importance of intraday electricity trading in Europe calls for improved price forecasting and tailored decision-support tools. In this paper, we propose a novel generative neural network model to generate probabilistic path…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-03 Jieyu Chen , Sebastian Lerch , Melanie Schienle , Tomasz Serafin , Rafał Weron

Electricity market prices exhibit extreme volatility, nonlinearity, and non-stationarity, making accurate forecasting a significant challenge. While cutting-edge time series foundation models (TSFMs) effectively capture temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Yunzhong Qiu , Binzhu Li , Hao Wei , Shenglin Weng , Chen Wang , Zhongyi Pei , Mingsheng Long , Jianmin Wang

Obtaining accurate probabilistic energy forecasts and making effective decisions amid diverse uncertainties are routine challenges in future energy systems. This paper presents the winning solution of team GEB, which ranked 3rd in trading,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-07 Chuanqing Pu , Feilong Fan , Nengling Tai , Songyuan Liu , Jinming Yu

Electricity demand and generation have become increasingly unpredictable with the growing share of variable renewable energy sources in the power system. Forecasting electricity supply by fuel mix is crucial for market operation, ensuring…

Applications · Statistics 2025-10-30 Han Lin Shang , Lin Han , Stefan Trück

Continuous intraday electricity markets play an increasingly important role in short-term trading and balancing, yet decision-making under rapidly evolving price dynamics remains challenging. This paper proposes a comprehensive framework…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-14 Andrzej Puć , Joanna Janczura