Related papers: Makeham Mortality Models as Mixtures

Several phenomena are available representing market activity: volumes, number of trades, durations between trades or quotes, volatility - however measured - all share the feature to be represented as positive valued time series. When…

Demographic projections of future mortality rates involve a high level of uncertainty and require stochastic mortality models. The current paper investigates forward mortality models driven by a (possibly infinite dimensional) Wiener…

The EU Solvency II directive recommends insurance companies to pay more attention to the risk management methods. The sense of risk management is the ability to quantify risk and apply methods that reduce uncertainty. In life insurance, the…

Contact (or mixing, or more generally connectivity) matrices are a fundamental component of modelling and inference for infectious disease epidemiology. Their structure and parametrisation directly accounts for the frequency of interactions…

Survival analysis (SA) is an active field of research that is concerned with time-to-event outcomes and is prevalent in many domains, particularly biomedical applications. Despite its importance, SA remains challenging due to small-scale…

Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled probabilistic approach to study and rank competing models. In standard BMC, we construct a discrete probability distribution over the set of possible models, conditional on the observed…

Widespread population aging has made it critical to understand death rates at old ages. However, studying mortality at old ages is challenging because the data are sparse: numbers of survivors and deaths get smaller and smaller with age. We…

New models for evolutionary processes of mutation accumulation allow hypotheses about the age-specificity of mutational effects to be translated into predictions of heterogeneous population hazard functions. We apply these models to…

This paper addresses the risk-minimization problem, with and without mortality securitization, \`a la F\"ollmer-Sondermann for a large class of equity-linked mortality contracts when no model for the death time is specified. This framework…

Natural hedging allows life insurers to manage longevity risk internally by offsetting the opposite exposures of life insurance and annuity liabilities. Although many studies have proposed natural hedging strategies under different…

Computer Vision practitioners must thoroughly understand their model's performance, but conditional evaluation is complex and error-prone. In biometric verification, model performance over continuous covariates---real-number attributes of…

Researchers often have to deal with heterogeneous population with mixed regression relationships, increasingly so in the era of data explosion. In such problems, when there are many candidate predictors, it is not only of interest to…

Electronic health records (EHR) are characterized as non-stationary, heterogeneous, noisy, and sparse data; therefore, it is challenging to learn the regularities or patterns inherent within them. In particular, sparseness caused mostly by…

Metabolic (dysfunction) associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) establishes new criteria for diagnosing fatty liver disease independent of alcohol consumption and concurrent viral hepatitis infection. However, the long-term outcome of MAFLD…

This paper describes a general approach for stochastic modeling of assets returns and liability cash-flows of a typical pensions insurer. On the asset side, we model the investment returns on equities and various classes of fixed-income…

Prognostication for lung cancer, a leading cause of mortality, remains a complex task, as it needs to quantify the associations of risk factors and health events spanning a patient's entire life. One challenge is that an individual's…

In the framework of Embedded Value new standards, namely the MCEV norms, the latest principles published in June 2008 address the issue of market and underwriting risks measurement by using stochastic models of projection and valorization.…

Mental disorders impact the lives of millions of people globally, not only impeding their day-to-day lives but also markedly reducing life expectancy. This paper addresses the persistent challenge of predicting mortality in patients with…

Consider a subject or unit in a longitudinal biomedical, public health, engineering, economic, or social science study which is being monitored over a possibly random duration. Over time this unit experiences competing recurrent events and…

In general insurance companies, a correct estimation of liabilities plays a key role due to its impact on management and investing decisions. Since the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 and the strengthening of regulation, the focus is not only…