Related papers: Multifidelity uncertainty quantification with mode…

We analyze an ensemble-based approach for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in atomistic neural networks. This method generates an epistemic uncertainty signal without requiring changes to the underlying multi-headed regression neural network…

High-resolution simulation models are essential for representing complex physical systems, yet their substantial computational cost severely limits the number of feasible high-fidelity (HF) evaluations. This problem is often addressed…

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is pivotal in enhancing the robustness, reliability, and interpretability of Machine Learning (ML) systems for healthcare, optimizing resources and improving patient care. Despite the emergence of ML-based…

Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) deals with the adaptation of models from a given source domain with labeled data to an unlabeled target domain. In this paper, we utilize the inherent prediction uncertainty of a model to accomplish the…

Quantifying uncertainties for machine learning (ML) models is a foundational challenge in modern data analysis. This challenge is compounded by at least two key aspects of the field: (a) inconsistent terminology surrounding uncertainty and…

Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a process to quantify the uncertainties in random input parameters while achieving consistency between code simulations and physical observations. In this paper, we performed inverse UQ using an…

We propose a novel, succinct, and effective approach for distribution prediction to quantify uncertainty in machine learning. It incorporates adaptively flexible distribution prediction of $\mathbb{P}(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X}=x)$ in regression…

The ability to replicate predictions by machine learning (ML) or artificial intelligence (AI) models and results in scientific workflows that incorporate such ML/AI predictions is driven by numerous factors. An uncertainty-aware metric that…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a crucial but challenging task in many high-dimensional regression or learning problems to increase the confidence of a given predictor. We develop a new data-driven approach for UQ in regression that…

Using a cyclotron based model problem, we demonstrate for the first time the applicability and usefulness of a uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach in order to construct surrogate models for quantities such as emittance, energy spread…

Parameter inference and uncertainty quantification are important steps when relating mathematical models to real-world observations, and when estimating uncertainty in model predictions. However, methods for doing this can be…

Universal machine learning interatomic potentials (uMLIPs) are reshaping atomistic simulation as foundation models, delivering near \textit{ab initio} accuracy at a fraction of the cost. Yet the lack of reliable, general uncertainty…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning regression is of wide interest, as it supports critical applications including sequential decision making and risk-sensitive tasks. In heteroskedastic regression, where the uncertainty of the…

Multifidelity uncertainty propagation combines the efficiency of low-fidelity models with the accuracy of a high-fidelity model to construct statistical estimators of quantities of interest. It is well known that the effectiveness of such…

We study the problem of actively learning a classifier with a low calibration error. One of the most popular Acquisition Functions (AFs) in pool-based Active Learning (AL) is querying by the model's uncertainty. However, we recognize that…

Uncertainty analysis in the outcomes of model predictions is a key element in decision-based material design to establish confidence in the models and evaluate the fidelity of models. Uncertainty Propagation (UP) is a technique to determine…

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a booming discipline for complex computational models based on the analysis of robustness, reliability and credibility. UQ analysis for nonlinear crash models with high dimensional outputs presents…

We present a new approach for nonlinear dimensionality reduction, specifically designed for computationally expensive mathematical models. We leverage autoencoders to discover a one-dimensional neural active manifold (NeurAM) capturing the…

In many situations across computational science and engineering, multiple computational models are available that describe a system of interest. These different models have varying evaluation costs and varying fidelities. Typically, a…

Mathematical models are essential tools to study how the cardiovascular system maintains homeostasis. The utility of such models is limited by the accuracy of their predictions, which can be determined by uncertainty quantification (UQ). A…