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Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an active area of research, and an essential technique used in all fields of science and engineering. The most common methods for UQ are Monte Carlo and surrogate-modelling. The former method is…

Computation · Statistics 2023-09-01 Arnau Albà , Romana Boiger , Dimitri Rochman , Andreas Adelmann

Two of the most significant challenges in uncertainty quantification pertain to the high computational cost for simulating complex physical models and the high dimension of the random inputs. In applications of practical interest, both of…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-09-02 Jonas Nitzler , Jonas Biehler , Niklas Fehn , Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis , Wolfgang A. Wall

A general adaptive approach rooted in stratified sampling (SS) is proposed for sample-based uncertainty quantification (UQ). To motivate its use in this context the space-filling, orthogonality, and projective properties of SS are compared…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-12-14 Michael D. Shields , Kirubel Teferra , Adam Hapij , Raymond P. Daddazio

Obtaining reliable and accurate quantification of uncertainty estimates from deep neural networks is important in safety-critical applications. A well-calibrated model should be accurate when it is certain about its prediction and indicate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-16 Ranganath Krishnan , Omesh Tickoo

The quality of synthetically generated images (e.g. those produced by diffusion models) are often evaluated using information about image contents encoded by pretrained auxiliary models. For example, the Fr\'{e}chet Inception Distance (FID)…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Ciaran Bench , Spencer A. Thomas

The advent of fabrication techniques such as additive manufacturing has focused attention on the considerable variability of material response due to defects and other microstructural aspects. This variability motivates the development of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-06-26 Francesco Rizzi , Mohammad Khalil , Reese E. Jones , Jeremy A. Templeton , Jakob T. Ostien , Brad L. Boyce

The advent of fabrication techniques like additive manufacturing has focused attention on the considerable variability of material response due to defects and other micro-structural aspects. This variability motivates the development of an…

Applied Physics · Physics 2018-02-06 F. Rizzi , R. E. Jones , J. A. Templeton , J. T. Ostien , B. L. Boyce

Effective Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) represents a key aspect for reliable deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) in automated decision-making and beyond. Yet, for LLM generation with multiple choice structure, the state-of-the-art…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Ramzi Dakhmouche , Adrien Letellier , Hossein Gorji

State-of-the-art computer codes for simulating real physical systems are often characterized by a vast number of input parameters. Performing uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks with Monte Carlo (MC) methods is almost always infeasible…

Computational Physics · Physics 2018-10-17 Rohit Tripathy , Ilias Bilionis

This paper introduces a novel and scalable framework for uncertainty estimation and separation with applications in data driven modeling in science and engineering tasks where reliable uncertainty quantification is critical. Leveraging an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-19 Navid Ansari , Hans-Peter Seidel , Vahid Babaei

In complex physical process characterization, such as the measurement of the regression rate for solid hybrid rocket fuels, where both the observation data and the model used have uncertainties originating from multiple sources, combining…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-21 Georgios Georgalis , Kolos Retfalvi , Paul E. DesJardin , Abani Patra

Multi-fidelity (MF) methods are gaining popularity for enhancing surrogate modeling and design optimization by incorporating data from various low-fidelity (LF) models. While most existing MF methods assume a fixed dataset, adaptive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-06 Yi-Ping Chen , Liwei Wang , Yigitcan Comlek , Wei Chen

It is critical that machine learning (ML) model predictions be trustworthy for high-throughput catalyst discovery approaches. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods allow estimation of the trustworthiness of an ML model, but these methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Cameron Gruich , Varun Madhavan , Yixin Wang , Bryan Goldsmith

Neural networks (NNs) often assign high confidence to their predictions, even for points far out-of-distribution, making uncertainty quantification (UQ) a challenge. When they are employed to model interatomic potentials in materials…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-27 Aik Rui Tan , Shingo Urata , Samuel Goldman , Johannes C. B. Dietschreit , Rafael Gómez-Bombarelli

Multimodal AI models are increasingly used in fields like healthcare, finance, and autonomous driving, where information is drawn from multiple sources or modalities such as images, texts, audios, videos. However, effectively managing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-16 Grigor Bezirganyan , Sana Sellami , Laure Berti-Équille , Sébastien Fournier

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is receiving more and more attention for engineering applications in particular from robust optimization. Indeed, running a computer experiment only provides a limited knowledge in terms of uncertainty and…

Treating uncertainties in models is essential in many fields of science and engineering. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) on complex and computationally costly numerical models necessitates a combination of efficient model solvers, advanced…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2023-04-28 Linus Seelinger , Anne Reinarz , Jean Benezech , Mikkel Bue Lykkegaard , Lorenzo Tamellini , Robert Scheichl

We introduce a multi-fidelity estimator of covariance matrices that employs the log-Euclidean geometry of the symmetric positive-definite manifold. The estimator fuses samples from a hierarchy of data sources of differing fidelities and…

Computation · Statistics 2023-05-30 Aimee Maurais , Terrence Alsup , Benjamin Peherstorfer , Youssef Marzouk

Graphical models have demonstrated their exceptional capabilities across numerous applications. However, their performance, confidence, and trustworthiness are often limited by the inherent randomness in data generation and the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Chao Chen , Chenghua Guo , Rui Xu , Jiujiu Chen , Xiangwen Liao , Xi Zhang , Sihong Xie , Hui Xiong , Philip Yu

We propose a novel sampling-based federated learning framework for statistical inference on M-estimators with non-smooth objective functions, which frequently arise in modern statistical applications such as quantile regression and AUC…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-06 Xiudi Li , Lu Tian , Tianxi Cai
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