Related papers: Kinematic Earthquake Sequences on Geometrically Co…
Traditional models of slow slip events (SSEs) often oversimplify fault geometry, yet imaging studies show that real subduction faults are segmented and complex. We investigate how fault interactions influence slip behavior using 3D…
Active faults release elastic strain energy via a whole continuum of modes of slip, ranging from devastating earthquakes to Slow Slip Events and persistent creep. Understanding the mechanisms controlling the occurrence of rapid, dynamic…
We develop and implement a new type of global earthquake forecast. Our forecast is a perturbation on a smoothed seismicity (Relative Intensity) spatial forecast combined with a temporal time-averaged (Poisson) forecast. A variety of…
Hawkes process is one of the most commonly used models for investigating the self-exciting nature of earthquake occurrences. However, seismicity patterns have complicated characteristics due to heterogeneous geology and stresses, for which…
We have developed a model that describes the major characteristics of a rupture, ranging from regular earthquakes (EQs) to slow slip events (SSEs), including episodic tremor and slip (ETS). Previous model predictions, while accurate, are…
Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event.…
Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to…
Extending the central concept of recurrence times for a point process to recurrent events in space-time allows us to characterize seismicity as a record breaking process using only spatiotemporal relations among events. Linking record…
Low-frequency earthquakes are a particular class of slow earthquakes that provide a unique source of information on the mechanical properties of a subduction zone during the preparation of large earthquakes. Despite increasing detection of…
Estimates of seismic wave speeds in the Earth (seismic velocity models) are key input parameters to earthquake simulations for ground motion prediction. Owing to the non-uniqueness of the seismic inverse problem, typically many velocity…
Non-inertial afterslip has been inferred to occur following large earthquakes. An explanation for this slow slip phenomenon is that coseismically generated stresses induce sliding on parts of a fault surface with velocity-strengthening…
A model for fault dynamics consisting of two rough and rigid brownian profiles that slide one over the other is introduced. An earthquake occurs when there is an intersection between the two profiles. The energy release is proportional to…
We present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes in California, to be tested in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The first, time-independent model, modified from Helmstetter et…
Although our existing one-dimensional (1D) model provides a successful quantitative description of rupture events, a 1D description is somewhat limited. We therefore derive a two-dimensional (2D) model which allows us to investigate…
We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to distinguish between relevant causally connected earthquakes. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski (2004). A network of…
Numerical simulation of seismicity has been successfully developed and used for the two last decades. Presently, the general theory of modeling and the progress in computational techniques provide wide options for simulation of seismic and…
Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…
The final size of an earthquake typically cannot be predicted from its ongoing seismic radiation. Expanding observations reveal distinct exceptions, such as slow earthquakes, injection-induced seismicity, and earthquake swarms, in which…
The distribution of inter-occurrence time between seismic events is a quantity of great interest in seismic risk assessment. We evaluate this distribution for different models of earthquakes occurrence and follow two distinct approaches:…
Despite dissimilar slip rates, slow earthquakes are faulting as ordinary earthquakes are. It is therefore physically natural that slow earthquakes also cause postseismic motions similarly to ordinary earthquakes, even though coseismic and…