Related papers: Kinematic Earthquake Sequences on Geometrically Co…
We consider three questions related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) Why was the event size so grossly under-estimated? (2) How should we evaluate the chances of giant earthquakes in subduction zones? and (3) What is the repeat time…
This work extends the VirtualQuake earthquake simulation framework to incorporate the effects of fluid injection on fault stability and induced seismicity. Reworking VirtualQuake into a system using stress point sources, instead of…
Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models are point processes that have found prominence in seismological modeling. Its success has led to the development of a number of different versions of the ETAS model. Among these extensions is…
The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model and its variants effectively capture the space-time clustering of seismicity, setting the standard for earthquake forecasting. Accurate unbiased ETAS calibration is thus crucial. But we…
Automatic event detection from time series signals has wide applications, such as abnormal event detection in video surveillance and event detection in geophysical data. Traditional detection methods detect events primarily by the use of…
Local wave amplification due to strong seismic motions in surficial multilayered soil is influenced by several parameters such as the wavefield polarization and the dynamic properties and impedance contrast between soil layers. The present…
The frictional instability associated with earthquake initiation and earthquake dynamics is believed to be mainly controlled by the dynamics of fragmented rocks within the fault gauge. Principal features of the emerging seismicity (e.g.…
We propose a new method to test the effectiveness of a spatial point process forecast based on a log-likelihood score for predicted point density and the information gain for events that actually occurred in the test period. The method…
Micro-seismic events, naturally occurring within geological formations and quasi-brittle engineered systems, provide a powerful window into the evolving processes of material degradation and failure. Accurate characterization of these…
We review the "critical point" concept for large earthquakes and enlarge it in the framework of so-called "finite-time singularities". The singular behavior associated with accelerated seismic release is shown to result from a positive…
Earthquakes rank among the most destructive manifestations of the Earth's dynamics. Can they be predicted? This is often the first question students ask. To answer that right away: no, at present it is not possible to anticipate the date,…
Nearly all aspects of earthquake rupture are controlled by the friction along the fault that progressively increases with tectonic forcing, but in general cannot be directly measured. We show that fault friction can be determined at any…
The aftershocks of the Tohoku earthquake are analyzed in light of the phenomenological theory of aftershocks. The theory is based on the concept of an earthquake source as a dynamic system, the state of which is described by a deactivation…
The occurrence of aftershocks following a major financial crash manifests the critical dynamical response of financial markets. Aftershocks put additional stress on markets, with conceivable dramatic consequences. Such a phenomenon has been…
Waiting-time statistics are generated from the Olami-Feder-Christensen model and shown to mimic some aspects of real seismicity. Preliminary analysis of the model data implies a recently proposed universal scaling law for the distribution…
This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties…
Spatio-temporal correlations of the one-dimensional spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff) model of earthquakes are extensively studied by means of numerical computer simulations. Particular attention is paid to clarifying how the statistical…
Irregularly sampled multivariate event streams remain a stubbornly difficult modality for generative modeling: tokenization-based approaches break down when inter-event intervals vary by orders of magnitude, and neural temporal point…
In this paper, we propose a stochastic dynamic model for earthquake rupture and suggest that the Langevin equation of frictions may be used for interpreting the slip distributions of rupture processes in earthquakes. The steady-state…
Forecasting earthquake sequences remains a central challenge in seismology, particularly under non-stationary conditions. While deep learning models have shown promise, their ability to generalize across time remains poorly understood. We…