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We introduce the Hawkes process with renewal immigration and make its statistical estimation possible with two Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithms. The standard Hawkes process introduces immigrant points via a Poisson process, and each…

Applications · Statistics 2014-07-29 Spencer Wheatley , Vladimir Filimonov , Didier Sornette

This paper investigates Hawkes processes on the positive real line exhibiting both self-excitation and inhibition. Each point of this point process impacts its future intensity by the addition of a signed reproduction function. The case of…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Manon Costa , Carl Graham , Laurence Marsalle , Viet Chi Tran

Hawkes processes are point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties that are popular in applications. In recent years, renewal Hawkes processes have gained attention, due to their versatility such as the capability of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-09 Lirong Cui , Yongji Zhang , Lingjiong Zhu

The Hawkes process is a simple point process, whose intensity function depends on the entire past history and is self-exciting and has the clustering property. The Hawkes process is in general non-Markovian. The linear Hawkes process has…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-04 Behzad Mehrdad , Lingjiong Zhu

A uniform law of large numbers and a central limit theorem are established via a martingale approach for a univariate Hawkes process with immigration given by a renewal process. The results are obtained for renewal processes with absolutely…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-01 Luis Iván Hernández Ruíz

This paper focuses on a class of linear Hawkes processes with general immigrants. These are counting processes with shot noise intensity, including self-excited and externally excited patterns. For such processes, we introduce the concept…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-27 Alexandre Boumezoued

In the last decade Hawkes processes have received much attention as models for functional connectivity in neural spiking networks and other dynamical systems with a cascade behavior. In this paper we establish a renewal approach for…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-11 Mads Bonde Raad

We introduce, and formally establish, a variant of the Hawkes-fed birth-death process -- the delayed Hawkes birth-death process -- in which the conditional intensity does not increase at arrivals but at departures from the system. In a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-24 Justin Baars , Roger J. A. Laeven , Michel Mandjes

We derive explicit, closed-form expressions for the cumulant densities of a multivariate, self-exciting Hawkes point process, generalizing a result of Hawkes in his earlier work on the covariance density and Bartlett spectrum of such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-08 Stojan Jovanović , John Hertz , Stefan Rotter

We prove regenerative properties for the linear Hawkes process under minimal assumptions on the transfer function, which may have unbounded support. These results are applicable to sliding window statistical estimators. We exploit…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-07 Carl Graham

Hawkes process is a self-exciting point process with clustering effect whose intensity depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in neuroscience, finance and many other fields. In this paper, we obtain a functional…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-16 Lingjiong Zhu

We characterize a Hawkes point process with kernel proportional to the probability density function of Mittag-Leffler random variables. This kernel decays as a power law with exponent $\beta +1 \in (1,2]$. Several analytical results can be…

A univariate Hawkes process is a simple point process that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process is given by the sum of a baseline intensity and another term that depends on the entire past history…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-04 Xuefeng Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

The Hawkes process is a model for counting the number of arrivals to a system which exhibits the self-exciting property - that one arrival creates a heightened chance of further arrivals in the near future. The model, and its…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-20 Patrick J. Laub , Young Lee , Philip K. Pollett , Thomas Taimre

In this paper, we propose an extension of the Hawkes process by incorporating a kernel based on the tempered Mittag-Leffler distribution. This is the generalization of the work presented in [10]. We derive analytical results for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-22 Neha Gupta , Aditya Maheshwari

We construct a family of processes, from a renewal process, that have realizations that converge almost surely to the Brownian motion, uniformly on the unit time interval. Finally we compute the rate of convergence in a particular case.

Probability · Mathematics 2022-12-13 Xavier Bardina , Carles Rovira

The article describes the limiting distribution of the extremes of observations that arrive in clusters. We start by studying the tail behaviour of an individual cluster and then we apply the developed theory to determine the limiting…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-28 Bojan Basrak , Nikolina Milinčević , Petra Žugec

In this work, several convergence results are established for nearly critical self-excited systems in which event arrivals are described by multivariate marked Hawkes point processes. Under some mild high-frequency assumptions, the rescaled…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-31 Wei Xu

We study the asymptotic properties of the solutions of a nonlinear renewal equation. The main contribution of the present article is to provide stability and convergence results around equilibrium solutions, under some local subcritical…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-12-17 Céline Duval , Eric Luçon

Genuinely critical dynamics have been proposed to organize many natural and social systems, yet exact criticality is usually thought to preclude stationarity because the mean activity diverges. I show that this conclusion is not generally…

General Physics · Physics 2026-05-26 Didier Sornette
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