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This article establishes novel strong uniform laws of large numbers for randomly weighted sums such as bootstrap means. By leveraging recent advances, these results extend previous work in their general applicability to a wide range of…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-10-24 Neil A. Spencer , Jeffrey W. Miller

Bayesian paradigm takes advantage of well fitting complicated survival models and feasible computing in survival analysis owing to the superiority in tackling the complex censoring scheme, compared with the frequentist paradigm. In this…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-10 Chong Zhong , Zhihua Ma , Junshan Shen , Catherine Liu

Bayesian deep learning (BDL) is a promising approach to achieve well-calibrated predictions on distribution-shifted data. Nevertheless, there exists no large-scale survey that evaluates recent SOTA methods on diverse, realistic, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-26 Florian Seligmann , Philipp Becker , Michael Volpp , Gerhard Neumann

We study the problem of bounding the posterior distribution of discrete probabilistic programs with unbounded support, loops, and conditioning. Loops pose the main difficulty in this setting: even if exact Bayesian inference is possible,…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2024-12-06 Fabian Zaiser , Andrzej S. Murawski , C. -H. Luke Ong

This article is motivated by challenges in conducting Bayesian inferences on unknown discrete distributions, with a particular focus on count data. To avoid the computational disadvantages of traditional mixture models, we develop a novel…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-12 Davide Agnoletto , Tommaso Rigon , David B. Dunson

Drawing a sample from a discrete distribution is one of the building components for Monte Carlo methods. Like other sampling algorithms, discrete sampling suffers from the high computational burden in large-scale inference problems. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-04-29 Yutian Chen , Zoubin Ghahramani

We revisit the estimation of the extreme value index for randomly censored data from a heavy tailed distribution. We introduce a new class of estimators which encompasses earlier proposals given in Worms and Worms (2014) and Beirlant et al.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-19 Jan Beirlant , Julien Worms , Rym Worms

Using coupling techniques based on Stein's method for probability approximation, we revisit classical variance bounding inequalities of Chernoff, Cacoullos, Chen and Klaassen. Taking advantage of modern coupling techniques allows us to…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-11-11 Fraser Daly , Fatemeh Ghaderinezhad , Christophe Ley , Yvik Swan

We consider Bayesian multiple statistical classification problem in the case where the unknown source distributions are estimated from the labeled training sequences, then the estimates are used as nominal distributions in a robust…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-10-11 Hüseyin Afşer

This paper derives non-asymptotic error bounds for nonlinear stochastic approximation algorithms in the Wasserstein-$p$ distance. To obtain explicit finite-sample guarantees for the last iterate, we develop a coupling argument that compares…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Seo Taek Kong , R. Srikant

In this paper, we reconsider the large-argument asymptotic expansions of the Hankel, Bessel and modified Bessel functions and their derivatives. New integral representations for the remainder terms of these asymptotic expansions are found…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2017-07-07 Gergő Nemes

When randomized ensembles such as bagging or random forests are used for binary classification, the prediction error of the ensemble tends to decrease and stabilize as the number of classifiers increases. However, the precise relationship…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-01 Miles E. Lopes

Asymptotics deviation probabilities of the sum S n = X 1 + $\times$ $\times$ $\times$ + X n of independent and identically distributed real-valued random variables have been extensively investigated , in particular when X 1 is not…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-20 Thierry Klein , Agnès Lagnoux , Pierre Petit

Bayesian inference typically requires the computation of an approximation to the posterior distribution. An important requirement for an approximate Bayesian inference algorithm is to output high-accuracy posterior mean and uncertainty…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-03 Jonathan H. Huggins , Trevor Campbell , Mikołaj Kasprzak , Tamara Broderick

Let $\eta_1$, $\eta_2,\ldots$ be independent copies of a random variable $\eta$ with zero mean and finite variance which is bounded from the right, that is, $\eta\leq b$ almost surely for some $b>0$. Considering different types of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-10-17 Alexander Iksanov , Vitali Wachtel

In this paper, we aim to design and analyze distributed Bayesian estimation algorithms for sensor networks. The challenges we address are to (i) derive a distributed provably-correct algorithm in the functional space of probability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Parth Paritosh , Nikolay Atanasov , Sonia Martinez

We introduce a novel framework for the estimation of the posterior distribution over the weights of a neural network, based on a new probabilistic interpretation of adaptive optimisation algorithms such as AdaGrad and Adam. We demonstrate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-21 Samuel Kessler , Arnold Salas , Vincent W. C. Tan , Stefan Zohren , Stephen Roberts

A family of random probabilities is defined and studied. This family contains the Dirichlet process as a special case, corresponding to an inner point in the appropriate parameter space. The extension makes it possible to have random means…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Nils Lid Hjort

We propose a new strategy for best-arm identification with fixed confidence of Gaussian variables with bounded means and unit variance. This strategy, called Exploration-Biased Sampling, is not only asymptotically optimal: it is to the best…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-08 Antoine Barrier , Aurélien Garivier , Tomáš Kocák

We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Magid Sabbagh , David A. Stephens
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