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This paper proposes a multi-step probabilistic forecasting framework using a single neural-network based model to generate simultaneous point and interval forecasts. Our approach ensures non-crossing prediction intervals (PIs) through a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Worachit Amnuaypongsa , Yotsapat Suparanonrat , Pana Wanitchollakit , Jitkomut Songsiri

Machine learning algorithms in high-dimensional settings are highly susceptible to the influence of even a small fraction of structured outliers, making robust optimization techniques essential. In particular, within the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Changyu Gao , Andrew Lowy , Xingyu Zhou , Stephen J. Wright

We propose a novel and generic calibration technique for four-factor foreign-exchange hybrid local-stochastic volatility models with stochastic short rates. We build upon the particle method introduced by Guyon and Labord\`ere [Nonlinear…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-19 Andrei Cozma , Matthieu Mariapragassam , Christoph Reisinger

We propose a robust calibration pipeline that optimises the selection of calibration samples for the estimation of calibration parameters that fit the entire scene. We minimise user error by automating the data selection process according…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-09-23 Darren Tsai , Stewart Worrall , Mao Shan , Anton Lohr , Eduardo Nebot

High-dimensional prediction typically comprises two steps: variable selection and subsequent least-squares refitting on the selected variables. However, the standard variable selection procedures, such as the lasso, hinge on tuning…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-07 Didier Chételat , Johannes Lederer , Joseph Salmon

Volatility smile and skewness are two key properties of option prices that are represented by the implied volatility (IV) surface. However, IV surface calibration through nonlinear interpolation is a complex problem due to several factors,…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-30 Kentaro Hoshisashi , Carolyn E. Phelan , Paolo Barucca

With information from multiple input modalities, sensor fusion-based algorithms usually out-perform their single-modality counterparts in robotics. Camera and LIDAR, with complementary semantic and depth information, are the typical choices…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-07-11 Akio Kodaira , Yiyang Zhou , Pengwei Zang , Wei Zhan , Masayoshi Tomizuka

This paper is a companion paper to [Lipman and Daubechies 2011]. We provide numerical procedures and algorithms for computing the alignment of and distance between two disk type surfaces. We provide a convergence analysis of the discrete…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-02-18 Yaron Lipman , Jesus Puente , Ingrid Daubechies

A smoothing algorithm is presented for solving the soft-margin Support Vector Machine (SVM) optimization problem with an $\ell^{1}$ penalty. This algorithm is designed to require a modest number of passes over the data, which is an…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-01-19 Ibrahim Emirahmetoglu , Jeffrey Hajewski , Suely Oliveira , David E. Stewart

Robust estimators for linear regression require non-convex objective functions to shield against adverse affects of outliers. This non-convexity brings challenges, particularly when combined with penalization in high-dimensional settings.…

Computation · Statistics 2025-08-08 David Kepplinger , Siqi Wei

We propose a new static parameterization of the implied volatility surface which is constructed by using polynomials of sigmoid functions combined with some other terms. This parameterization is flexible enough to fit market implied…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-12-09 Andrey Itkin

Computer model calibration is a crucial step in building a reliable computer model. In the face of massive physical observations, a fast estimation for the calibration parameters is urgently needed. To alleviate the computational burden, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-24 Shurui Lv , Yan Wang , Jun Yu

Managing exotic derivatives requires accurate mark-to-market pricing and stable Greeks for reliable hedging. The Local Volatility (LV) model distinguishes itself from other pricing models by its ability to match observable market prices…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-24 Ruozhong Yang , Hao Qin , Charlie Che , Liming Feng

This paper presents a hybrid algorithm that combines features form both Sqrt(3) and Loop Subdivision schemes. The algorithm aims at preserving sharp features and trim regions, during the surfaces subdivision, using a set of rules. The…

Computational Geometry · Computer Science 2014-02-11 Yasser M. Abd El-Latif

In this paper, we consider three stochastic-volatility models, each characterized by distinct dynamics of instantaneous volatility: (1) a CIR process for squared volatility (i.e., the classical Heston model); (2) a mean-reverting lognormal…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-14 V. Perederiy

When developing risk prediction models, shrinkage methods are recommended, especially when the sample size is limited. Several earlier studies have shown that the shrinkage of model coefficients can reduce overfitting of the prediction…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-29 Ben Van Calster , Maarten van Smeden , Ewout W. Steyerberg

We consider convex-concave saddle-point problems where the objective functions may be split in many components, and extend recent stochastic variance reduction methods (such as SVRG or SAGA) to provide the first large-scale linearly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-04 P Balamurugan , Francis Bach

In this paper, we initiate the study of the weighted paging problem with predictions. This continues the recent line of work in online algorithms with predictions, particularly that of Lykouris and Vassilvitski (ICML 2018) and Rohatgi (SODA…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2020-06-18 Zhihao Jiang , Debmalya Panigrahi , Kevin Sun

Reliable uncertainty estimates are an important tool for helping autonomous agents or human decision makers understand and leverage predictive models. However, existing approaches to estimating uncertainty largely ignore the possibility of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-22 Sangdon Park , Osbert Bastani , James Weimer , Insup Lee

Many modern datasets consist of multiple related matrices measured on a common set of units, where the goal is to recover the shared low-dimensional subspace. While the Angle-based Joint and Individual Variation Explained (AJIVE) framework…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-03 Jingyang Li , Zhongyuan Lyu
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