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Neural network classifiers trained with cross-entropy loss achieve strong predictive accuracy but lack the capability to provide inherent predictive uncertainty estimates, thus requiring external techniques to obtain these estimates. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-08 Courtney Franzen , Farhad Pourkamali-Anaraki

Uncertainty estimation is critical for reliable medical image segmentation, particularly in retinal vessel analysis, where accurate predictions are essential for diagnostic applications. Deep Ensembles, where multiple networks are trained…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Jeremiah Fadugba , Petru Manescu , Bolanle Oladejo , Delmiro Fernandez-Reyes , Philipp Berens

Quantification of uncertainty is one of the most promising approaches to establish safe machine learning. Despite its importance, it is far from being generally solved, especially for neural networks. One of the most commonly used…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-11 Joachim Sicking , Maram Akila , Maximilian Pintz , Tim Wirtz , Asja Fischer , Stefan Wrobel

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have become integral to a wide range of scientific and practical applications due to their flexibility and strong predictive performance. Despite their accuracy, however, DNNs frequently exhibit poor calibration,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-12 Sanne Ruijs , Alina Kosiakova , Farrukh Javed

Deep learning has been shown to be highly effective for automatic modulation classification (AMC), which is a pivotal technology for next-generation cognitive communications. Yet, existing deep learning methods for AMC often lack robust…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-03 Huian Yang , Rajeev Sahay

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-08 Dennis Ulmer , Christian Hardmeier , Jes Frellsen

Ensembling a neural network is a widely recognized approach to enhance model performance, estimate uncertainty, and improve robustness in deep supervised learning. However, deep ensembles often come with high computational costs and memory…

This paper addresses the prediction stability, prediction accuracy and control capability of the current probabilistic model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) built on neural networks. A novel approach dropout-based probabilistic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-09-21 Wenjun Huang , Yunduan Cui , Huiyun Li , Xinyu Wu

Deep Learning is becoming an increasingly important way to produce accurate hydrological predictions across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Uncertainty estimations are critical for actionable hydrological forecasting, and while…

Recently, there has been a significant amount of interest in satellite telemetry anomaly detection (AD) using neural networks (NN). For AD purposes, the current approaches focus on either forecasting or reconstruction of the time series,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-29 Mohammad Amin Maleki Sadr , Yeying Zhu , Peng Hu

The use of deep learning for medical imaging has seen tremendous growth in the research community. One reason for the slow uptake of these systems in the clinical setting is that they are complex, opaque and tend to fail silently. Outside…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-07-03 Terrance DeVries , Graham W. Taylor

In the past years, deep learning has seen an increase in usage in the domain of histopathological applications. However, while these approaches have shown great potential, in high-risk environments deep learning models need to be able to…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-11-17 Hendrik A. Mehrtens , Alexander Kurz , Tabea-Clara Bucher , Titus J. Brinker

Accurately predicting customer Lifetime Value (LTV) is crucial for companies to optimize their revenue strategies. Traditional deep learning models for LTV prediction are effective but typically provide only point estimates and fail to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-26 Xinzhe Cao , Yadong Xu , Xiaofeng Yang

While deep ensembles are widely considered to be the default method for uncertainty quantification in deep learning, their effectiveness for graph-structured data is often simply assumed based on successes in domains like computer vision.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Pedro C. Vieira , Pedro Ribeiro , Viacheslav Borovitskiy

Probabilistic convolutional neural networks, which predict distributions of predictions instead of point estimates, led to recent advances in many areas of computer vision, from image reconstruction to semantic segmentation. Besides state…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-01-19 Josef Lorenz Rumberger , Lisa Mais , Dagmar Kainmueller

Uncertainty estimates of modern neuronal networks provide additional information next to the computed predictions and are thus expected to improve the understanding of the underlying model. Reliable uncertainties are particularly…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-06-11 Alain Jungo , Raphael Meier , Ekin Ermis , Evelyn Herrmann , Mauricio Reyes

Deep learning (DL) has shown great potential in digital pathology applications. The robustness of a diagnostic DL-based solution is essential for safe clinical deployment. In this work we evaluate if adding uncertainty estimates for DL…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-23 Milda Pocevičiūtė , Gabriel Eilertsen , Sofia Jarkman , Claes Lundström

Neural networks predictions are unreliable when the input sample is out of the training distribution or corrupted by noise. Being able to detect such failures automatically is fundamental to integrate deep learning algorithms into robotics.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-02-18 Antonio Loquercio , Mattia Segù , Davide Scaramuzza

Machine learning algorithms have been effectively applied into various real world tasks. However, it is difficult to provide high-quality machine learning solutions to accommodate an unknown distribution of input datasets; this difficulty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-26 Ruihan Hu , Qijun Huang , Sheng Chang , Hao Wang , Jin He

Uncertainty assessment has gained rapid interest in medical image analysis. A popular technique to compute epistemic uncertainty is the Monte-Carlo (MC) dropout technique. From a network with MC dropout and a single input, multiple outputs…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Robin Camarasa , Daniel Bos , Jeroen Hendrikse , Paul Nederkoorn , M. Eline Kooi , Aad van der Lugt , Marleen de Bruijne
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