Related papers: Testing lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks th…
We propose a realistic model for the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic subject to the lockdown and quarantine measures, which takes into account the time-delay for recovery or death processes. The dynamic equations for the entire process…
Epidemiological contact network models have emerged as an important tool in understanding and predicting the spread of infectious disease, due to their capacity to engage individual heterogeneity that may underlie essential dynamics of a…
The study of human mobility patterns is a crucially important research field for its impact on several socio-economic aspects and, in particular, the measure of regularity patters of human mobility can provide a across-the-board view of…
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly challenged traditional epidemiological models due to factors such as delayed diagnosis, asymptomatic transmission, isolation-induced contact changes, and underreported mortality. In response to these…
The primary tool for predicting infectious disease spread and intervention effectiveness is the mass action Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model of Kermack and McKendrick. Its usefulness derives largely from its conceptual and mathematical…
Epidemiological simulations as a method are used to better understand and predict the spreading of infectious diseases, for example of COVID-19. This paper presents an approach that combines person-centric data-driven human mobility…
The SARS-CoV-2 infectious outbreak has rapidly spread across the globe and precipitated varying policies to effectuate physical distancing to ameliorate its impact. In this study, we propose a new hybrid machine learning model, SIRNet, for…
We present a System Dynamics (SD) model of the Covid-19 pandemic spread in India. The detailed age-structured compartment-based model endogenously captures various disease transmission pathways, expanding significantly from the standard…
Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent…
Since the beginning of the epidemic, daily reports of CoViD-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths from around the world have been publicly available. This paper describes methods to characterize broad features of the spread of the disease,…
Social distancing is widely acknowledged as an effective public health policy combating the novel coronavirus. But extreme social distancing has costs and it is not clear how much social distancing is needed to achieve public health…
We propose a model predictive control (MPC) approach for minimising the social distancing and quarantine measures during a pandemic while maintaining a hard infection cap. To this end, we study the admissible and the maximal robust…
We formulate an optimal control problem to determine the lockdown policy to curb an epidemic where other control measures are not available yet. We present a unified framework to model the epidemic and economy that allows us to study the…
Masks are used as part of a comprehensive strategy of measures to limit transmission and save lives during the COVID-19 pandemic. Research about the impact of mask-wearing in the COVID-19 pandemic has raised formidable interest across…
We study the problem of a policymaker who aims at taming the spread of an epidemic while minimizing its associated social costs. The main feature of our model lies in the fact that the disease's transmission rate is a diffusive stochastic…
We present a new technique for rapid modeling and construction of scientifically accurate mesoscale biological models. Resulting 3D models are based on few 2D microscopy scans and the latest knowledge about the biological entity represented…
This study focuses on investigating the manner in which a prompt quarantine measure suppresses epidemics in networks. A simple and ideal quarantine measure is considered in which an individual is detected with a probability immediately…
We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspects of the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being in the latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions, and…
This study examines the effectiveness of regional lockdown strategies in mitigating pathogen spread across regional units, termed cities hereinafter. We develop simplified models to analyze infection spread across cities within a country…
Recent seroprevalence studies have tried to estimate the real number of asymptomatic cases affected by COVID-19. It is of paramount importance to understand the impact of these infections in order to prevent a second wave. This study aims…