Related papers: Testing lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks th…
Compartmental models of epidemics are widely used to forecast the effects of communicable diseases such as COVID-19 and to guide policy. Although it has long been known that such processes take place on social networks, the assumption of…
Over the past two decades there has been a number of global outbreaks of viral diseases. This has accelerated the efforts to model and forecast the disease spreading, in order to find ways to confine the spreading regionally and between…
We consider the spread of epidemics in technological and social networks. How do people react? Does awareness and cautious behavior help? We analyze these questions and present a dynamic model to describe the movement of individuals and/or…
The paper describes and compares three approaches to modeling an epidemic spread. The first approach is a well-known system of SIR ordinary differential equations. The second is a mean-field model, in which an isolation strategy for each…
A model of reactive social distancing in epidemics is proposed, in which the infection rate changes with the number infected. The final-size equation for the total number that the epidemic will infect can be derived analytically, as can the…
Epidemic models often reflect characteristic features of infectious spreading processes by coupled non-linear differential equations considering different states of health (such as Susceptible, Infected, or Recovered). This compartmental…
Currently, the world has been facing the brunt of a pandemic due to a disease called COVID-19 for the last 2 years. To study the spread of such infectious diseases it is important to not only understand their temporal evolution but also the…
The rapid transmission of the highly contagious novel coronavirus has been represented through several data-guided approaches across targeted geographies, in an attempt to understand when the pandemic will be under control and imposed…
Recent studies in network science and control have shown a meaningful relationship between the epidemic processes (e.g., COVID-19 spread) and some network properties. This paper studies how such network properties, namely clustering…
During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical models of epidemic spreading have emerged as powerful tools to produce valuable predictions of the evolution of the pandemic, helping public health authorities decide which intervention…
In this study, we propose a clustering-based approach on time-series data to capture COVID-19 spread patterns in the early period of the pandemic. We analyze the spread dynamics based on the early and post stages of COVID-19 for different…
Spatiotemporal modelling of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 involves using a variety of epidemiological metrics such as regional proportion of cases or regional positivity rates. Although observing their changes over time is critical…
As the outbreak of COVID-19 enters its third year, we have now enough data to analyse the behavior of the pandemic with mathematical models over a long period of time. The pandemic alternates periods of high and low infections, in a way…
Stochastic epidemic models which incorporate interactions between space and human mobility are a key tool to inform prioritisation of outbreak control to appropriate locations. However, methods for fitting such models to national-level…
Since roughly a decade ago, network science has focused among others on the problem of how the spreading of diseases depends on structural patterns. Here, we contribute to further advance our understanding of epidemic spreading processes by…
The spreading of virus infection is here simulated over artificial human networks. Here, the real-space urban life of people is modeled as a scale-free network with constraints. A scale-free network has been adopted for modeling on-line…
Epidemiology models play a key role in understanding and responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to build those models, scientists need to understand contributing factors and their relative importance. A large strand of literature has…
The Covid-19 pandemic is ongoing worldwide, and the damage it has caused is unprecedented. For prevention, South Korea has adopted a local quarantine strategy rather than a global lockdown. This approach not only minimizes economic damage,…
We analyze an approach to managing the COVID-19 pandemic without shutting down the economy while staying within the capacity of the healthcare system. We base our analysis on a detailed heterogeneous epidemiological model, which takes into…
Our main goal is to examine the role of communities in epidemic spread in a random graph model. More precisely, we consider a random graph model which consists of overlapping complete graphs, representing households, workplaces, school…