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Methods to quantify uncertainty in predictions from arbitrary models are in demand in high-stakes domains like medicine and finance. Conformal prediction has emerged as a popular method for producing a set of predictions with specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Jessica Hullman , Yifan Wu , Dawei Xie , Ziyang Guo , Andrew Gelman

Robust motion planning is a well-studied problem in the robotics literature, yet current algorithms struggle to operate scalably and safely in the presence of other moving agents, such as humans. This paper introduces a novel framework for…

Interest has been growing in decision-focused machine learning methods which train models to account for how their predictions are used in downstream optimization problems. Doing so can often improve performance on subsequent decision…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-03 Santiago Cortes-Gomez , Carlos Patiño , Yewon Byun , Steven Wu , Eric Horvitz , Bryan Wilder

Conformal predictors are machine learning algorithms developed in the 1990's by Gammerman, Vovk, and their research team, to provide set predictions with guaranteed confidence level. Over recent years, they have grown in popularity and have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Anthony Bellotti , Xindi Zhao

Autonomous systems like aircraft and assistive robots often operate in scenarios where guaranteeing safety is critical. Methods like Hamilton-Jacobi reachability can provide guaranteed safe sets and controllers for such systems. However,…

Automated driving systems require monitoring mechanisms to ensure safe operation, especially if system components degrade or fail. Their runtime self-representation plays a key role as it provides a-priori knowledge about the system's…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-07-30 Richard Schubert , Marvin Loba , Jasper Sünnemann , Torben Stolte , Markus Maurer

In order to have effective human-AI collaboration, it is necessary to address how the AI agent's behavior is being perceived by the humans-in-the-loop. When the agent's task plans are generated without such considerations, they may often…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-03-15 Anagha Kulkarni , Yantian Zha , Tathagata Chakraborti , Satya Gautam Vadlamudi , Yu Zhang , Subbarao Kambhampati

Human behavior in interactive settings is shaped not only by individual objectives but also by shared constraints with others, such as safety. Understanding how people allocate responsibility, i.e., how much one deviates from their desired…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Isaac Remy , Caleb Chang , Karen Leung

As more and more autonomous vehicles (AVs) are being deployed on public roads, designing socially compatible behaviors for them is becoming increasingly important. In order to generate safe and efficient actions, AVs need to not only…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-06-27 Letian Wang , Liting Sun , Masayoshi Tomizuka , Wei Zhan

As artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning (ML) gain widespread adoption, practitioners are increasingly seeking means to quantify and control the risk these systems incur. This challenge is especially salient when such systems have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-06 Drew Prinster , Samuel Stanton , Anqi Liu , Suchi Saria

Operator learning has been increasingly adopted in scientific and engineering applications, many of which require calibrated uncertainty quantification. Since the output of operator learning is a continuous function, quantifying uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-07 Ziqi Ma , Kamyar Azizzadenesheli , Anima Anandkumar

Predicting the motion of other road agents enables autonomous vehicles to perform safe and efficient path planning. This task is very complex, as the behaviour of road agents depends on many factors and the number of possible future…

Real-world data streams can change unpredictably due to distribution shifts, feedback loops and adversarial actors, which challenges the validity of forecasts. We present a forecasting framework ensuring valid uncertainty estimates…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Charles Marx , Volodymyr Kuleshov , Stefano Ermon

Conformal prediction is a framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets for previously unseen data, guaranteeing coverage of the true label with a specified probability. However, the efficiency of these prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

Reliable uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks is very crucial in safety-critical applications such as automated driving for trustworthy and informed decision-making. Assessing the quality of uncertainty estimates is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-12 Neslihan Kose , Ranganath Krishnan , Akash Dhamasia , Omesh Tickoo , Michael Paulitsch

Recently, there has been immense interest in using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for civilian operations. As a result, unmanned aerial systems traffic management is needed to ensure the safety and goal satisfaction of potentially…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2017-02-01 Mo Chen , Qie Hu , Jaime Fisac , Kene Akametalu , Casey Mackin , Claire Tomlin

In the field of autonomous systems, accurately predicting the trajectories of nearby vehicles and pedestrians is crucial for ensuring both safety and operational efficiency. This paper introduces a novel methodology for trajectory…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-08-26 Yu Zhang , Yongxiang Zou , Haoyu Zhang , Zeyu Liu , Houcheng Li , Long Cheng

Mobile robots navigating in crowds trained using reinforcement learning are known to suffer performance degradation when faced with out-of-distribution scenarios. We propose that by properly accounting for the uncertainties of pedestrians,…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Jianpeng Yao , Xiaopan Zhang , Yu Xia , Zejin Wang , Amit K. Roy-Chowdhury , Jiachen Li

Numerous studies have focused on learning and understanding the dynamics of physical systems from video data, such as spatial intelligence. Artificial intelligence requires quantitative assessments of the uncertainty of the model to ensure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Aoming Liang , Qi Liu , Lei Xu , Fahad Sohrab , Weicheng Cui , Changhui Song , Moncef Gabbouj

Recent advances in machine learning technologies and sensing have paved the way for the belief that safe, accessible, and convenient autonomous vehicles may be realized in the near future. Despite tremendous advances within this context,…