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Future trajectories play an important role across domains such as autonomous driving, hurricane forecasting, and epidemic modeling, where practitioners commonly generate ensemble paths by sampling probabilistic models or leveraging multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Ruipu Li , Daniel Menacho , Alexander Rodríguez

Existing multi-agent path finding (MAPF) solvers do not account for uncertain behavior of uncontrollable agents. We present a novel variant of Enhanced Conflict-Based Search (ECBS), for both one-shot and lifelong MAPF in dynamic…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2025-07-31 Kegan J. Strawn , Thomy Phan , Eric Wang , Nora Ayanian , Sven Koenig , Lars Lindemann

Giving autonomous agents the ability to forecast their own outcomes and uncertainty will allow them to communicate their competencies and be used more safely. We accomplish this by using a learned world model of the agent system to forecast…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-20 Aastha Acharya , Rebecca Russell , Nisar R. Ahmed

Action anticipation, intent prediction, and proactive behavior are all desirable characteristics for autonomous driving policies in interactive scenarios. Paramount, however, is ensuring safety on the road -- a key challenge in doing so is…

Density of the reachable states can help understand the risk of safety-critical systems, especially in situations when worst-case reachability is too conservative. Recent work provides a data-driven approach to compute the density…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-09-19 Yue Meng , Zeng Qiu , Md Tawhid Bin Waez , Chuchu Fan

Recently significant progress has been made in vehicle prediction and planning algorithms for autonomous driving. However, it remains quite challenging for an autonomous vehicle to plan its trajectory in complex scenarios when it is…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-07-25 Xiangguo Liu , Ruochen Jiao , Yixuan Wang , Yimin Han , Bowen Zheng , Qi Zhu

Automated driving systems require monitoring mechanisms to ensure operation as intended, especially when system elements degrade and/or fail. Hence, capability monitoring is crucial in order to evaluate the system's remaining performance…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-20 Ole Reuter , Richard Schubert , Marvin Loba , Markus Maurer

Quantifying a model's predictive uncertainty is essential for safety-critical applications such as autonomous driving. We consider quantifying such uncertainty for multi-object detection. In particular, we leverage conformal prediction to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-07-31 Alexander Timans , Christoph-Nikolas Straehle , Kaspar Sakmann , Eric Nalisnick

For autonomous vehicles (AVs) to behave appropriately on roads populated by human-driven vehicles, they must be able to reason about the uncertain intentions and decisions of other drivers from rich perceptual information. Towards these…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-10-01 Nicholas Rhinehart , Rowan McAllister , Kris Kitani , Sergey Levine

We consider the problem of safe control in discrete autonomous agents that use learned components for imperfect perception (or more generally, state estimation) from high-dimensional observations. We propose a shield construction that…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-07-29 William Scarbro , Calum Imrie , Sinem Getir Yaman , Kavan Fatehi , Corina S. Pasareanu , Radu Calinescu , Ravi Mangal

Autonomous Vehicle decisions rely on multimodal prediction models that account for multiple route options and the inherent uncertainty in human behavior. However, models can suffer from mode collapse, where only the most likely mode is…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-07-01 Maarten Hugenholtz , Anna Meszaros , Jens Kober , Zlatan Ajanovic

Safe planning of an autonomous agent in interactive environments -- such as the control of a self-driving vehicle among pedestrians -- poses a major challenge as the behavior of the environment is unknown and reactive to the behavior of the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-05 Omid Mirzaeedodangeh , Eliot Shekhtman , Nikolai Matni , Lars Lindemann

This research introduces two efficient methods to estimate the collision risk of planned trajectories in autonomous driving under uncertain driving conditions. Deterministic collision checks of planned trajectories are often inaccurate or…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-10-08 Marc Kaufeld , Johannes Betz

Principled accountability for autonomous decision-making in uncertain environments requires distinguishing intentional outcomes from negligent designs from actual accidents. We propose analyzing the behavior of autonomous agents through a…

Safety assurance is critical in the planning and control of robotic systems. For robots operating in the real world, the safety-critical design often needs to explicitly address uncertainties and the pre-computed guarantees often rely on…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-07-09 Hao Zhou , Yanze Zhang , Wenhao Luo

Deploying autonomous systems in safety critical settings necessitates methods to verify their safety properties. This is challenging because real-world systems may be subject to disturbances that affect their performance, but are unknown a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-02-15 Nicholas Rober , Karan Mahesh , Tyler M. Paine , Max L. Greene , Steven Lee , Sildomar T. Monteiro , Michael R. Benjamin , Jonathan P. How

Existing conformal prediction algorithms estimate prediction intervals at target confidence levels to characterize the performance of a regression model on new test samples. However, considering an autonomous system consisting of multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-25 Yunye Gong , Yi Yao , Xiao Lin , Ajay Divakaran , Melinda Gervasio

Uncertainty quantification is essential in decision-making, especially when joint distributions of random variables are involved. While conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

Machine learning methods are increasingly widely used in high-risk settings such as healthcare, transportation, and finance. In these settings, it is important that a model produces calibrated uncertainty to reflect its own confidence and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-09-09 Sophia Sun

We investigate the problem of safe control synthesis for systems operating in environments with uncontrollable agents whose dynamics are unknown but coupled with those of the controlled system. This scenario naturally arises in various…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-28 Shuqi Wang , Siqi Wang , Shaoyuan Li , Xiang Yin