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We formulate a general age-of-infection epidemic model with two pathways: the symptomatic infections and the asymptomatic infections. We then calculate the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$ and establish the final size relation. It…
Contact networks can significantly change the course of epidemics, affecting the rate of new infections and the mean size of an outbreak. Despite this dependence, some characteristics of epidemics are not contingent on the contact network…
We study the effects of switching social contacts as a strategy to control epidemic outbreaks. Connections between susceptible and infective individuals can be broken by either individual, and then reconnected to a randomly chosen member of…
Compartmental epidemic models with dynamics that evolve over a graph network have gained considerable importance in recent years but analysis of these models is in general difficult due to their complexity. In this paper, we develop two…
Many disease models focus on characterizing the underlying transmission mechanism but make simple, possibly naive assumptions about how infections are reported. In this note, we use a simple deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR)…
Changes in human behavior are increasingly recognized as a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Although collective activity can be modified through imposed measures to control epidemic progression, spontaneous changes can also arise as…
We propose a compartmental model for vector-transmitted diseases, such as Malaria and Dengue, spreading over complex networks. Individuals are represented by independent random walkers and vectors by infected nodes. Both walkers and nodes…
Computational models of infectious disease can be broadly categorized into two types: individual-based (Agent-based), or compartmental models. While compartmental models can be structured to separate distinct sectors of a population, they…
Modelling epidemics via classical population-based models suffers from shortcomings that so-called individual-based models are able to overcome, as they are able to take heterogeneity features into account, such as super-spreaders, and…
The long-term evolution of epidemic processes depends crucially on the structure of contact networks. As empirical evidence indicates that human populations exhibit strong community organization, we investigate here how such mesoscopic…
Individual-based models of contagious processes are useful for predicting epidemic trajectories and informing intervention strategies. In such models, the incorporation of contact network information can capture the non-randomness and…
We investigate the effects of heterogeneous and clustered contact patterns on the timescale and final size of infectious disease epidemics. The abundance of transitive relationships (the number of 3 cliques) in a network and the variance of…
The interplay between disease spreading and personal risk perception is of key importance for modelling the spread of infectious diseases. We propose a planar system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to describe the co-evolution of…
Two versions of the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model, which have different transmission rules, are analysed. Both models are considered on a weighted network to simulate a mitigation in the connection between the individuals.…
For many infectious diseases, a small-world network on an underlying regular lattice is a suitable simplified model for the contact structure of the host population. It is well known that the contact network, described in this setting by a…
We propose a generalization of the adaptive N-Intertwined Mean-Field Approximation (aNIMFA) model studied in Achterberg and Sensi (2023) to a heterogeneous network of communities. In particular, the multigroup aNIMFA model describes the…
The state of health of patients is typically not characterized by a single disease alone but by multiple (comorbid) medical conditions. These comorbidities may depend strongly on age and gender. We propose a specific phenomenological…
A susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of multiple contagions on multilayer networks is developed to incorporate different spreading channels and disease mutations. The basic reproduction number for this model is estimated…
The SIR-compartment model is among the simplest models that describe the spread of a disease through a population. The model makes the unrealistic assumption that the population through which the disease is spreading is well-mixed. Although…
Epidemic spreading is well understood when a disease propagates around a contact graph. In a stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible setting, spectral conditions characterise whether the disease vanishes. However, modelling human…