Related papers: Physical Models for Solar Cycle Predictions
This review provides an introduction to the generation and evolution of the Sun's magnetic field, summarising both observational evidence and theoretical models. The eleven year solar cycle, which is well known from a variety of observed…
The sunspot solar cycle has been usually explained as the result of a dynamo process operating in the sun. This is a classical problem in Astrophysics that until the present is not fully solved. Here we discuss current problems and…
The level of solar magnetic activity, as exemplified by the number of sunspots and by energetic events in the corona, varies on a wide range of time scales. Most prominent is the 11-year solar cycle, which is significantly modulated on…
The predictability, or lack thereof, of the solar cycle is governed by numerous separate physical processes that act in unison in the interior of the Sun. Magnetic flux transport and the finite time delay it introduces, specifically in the…
The prediction of the strength of future solar cycles is of interest because of its practical significance for space weather and as a test of our theoretical understanding of the solar cycle. The Babcock-Leighton mechanism allows…
Context. Solar activity cycles vary in amplitude and duration. The variations can be at least partly explained by fluctuations in dynamo parameters. Aims. We want to restrict uncertainty in fluctuating dynamo parameters and find out which…
After summarizing the relevant observational data, we discuss how a study of flux tube dynamics in the solar convection zone helps us to understand the formation of sunspots. Then we introduce the flux transport dynamo model and assess its…
It is known that the so-called problem of solar power pacemaker related to possible existence of some hidden but key mechanism of energy influence of the Sun on fundamental geophysical processes is one of the principal and puzzling problems…
Understanding the irregular variation of the solar cycle is crucial due to its significant impact on global climates and the heliosphere. Since the polar magnetic field determines the amplitude of the next solar cycle, variations in the…
Various methods (or recipes) have been proposed to predict future solar activity levels - with mixed success. Among these, some precursor methods based upon quantities determined around or a few years before solar minimum have provided…
Theoretical models for the solar dynamo range from simple low-dimensional ``toy models'' to complex 3D-MHD simulations. Here we mainly discuss appproaches that are motivated and guided by solar (and stellar) observations. We give a brief…
Our understanding of stellar dynamos has largely been driven by the phenomena we have observed of our own Sun. Yet, as we amass longer-term datasets for an increasing number of stars, it is clear that there is a wide variety of stellar…
Like the solar cycle, stellar activity cycles are also irregular. Observations reveal that rapidly rotating (young) Sun-like stars exhibit a high level of activity with no Maunder-like grand minima and rarely display smooth regular activity…
We begin with a review of the predictions for cycle~24 before its onset. After summarizing the basics of the flux transport dynamo model, we discuss how this model had been used to make a successful prediction of cycle~24, on the assumption…
Solar activity seems quite understandable when considered on the scales comparable with a solar cycle, i.e. about 11 years, and on a short time scale of about a year. A solar cycle looks basically (anti)symmetric with respect to the solar…
We discuss the difficulties of predicting the solar cycle using mean-field models. Here we argue that these difficulties arise owing to the significant modulation of the solar activity cycle, and that this modulation arises owing to either…
We present the first global, three-dimensional simulations of solar/stellar convection that take into account the influence of magnetic flux emergence by means of the Babcock-Leighton (BL) mechanism. We have shown that the inclusion of a BL…
The Sun and solar-type stars exhibit irregular cyclic variations in their magnetic activity over long time scales. To understand this irregularity, we employed the flux transport dynamo models to investigate the behavior of one solar mass…
It is proposed that the observed near-surface inflows towards the active regions and sunspot zones provide a nonlinear feedback mechanism that limits the amplitude of a Babcock-Leighton-type solar dynamo and determines the variation of the…
The Sun's polar magnetic fields are directly related to solar cycle variability. The strength of the polar fields at the start (minimum) of a cycle determine the subsequent amplitude of that cycle. In addition, the polar field reversals at…