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Reliably quantifying the confidence of deep neural classifiers is a challenging yet fundamental requirement for deploying such models in safety-critical applications. In this paper, we introduce a novel target criterion for model…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-06-01 Charles Corbière , Nicolas Thome , Antoine Saporta , Tuan-Hung Vu , Matthieu Cord , Patrick Pérez

Conformal Prediction is a robust framework that ensures reliable coverage across machine learning tasks. Although recent studies have applied conformal prediction to graph neural networks, they have largely emphasized post-hoc prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Yuntian He , Pranav Maneriker , Anutam Srinivasan , Aditya T. Vadlamani , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

Conformal prediction (CP) constructs uncertainty sets for model outputs with finite-sample coverage guarantees. A candidate output is included in the prediction set if its non-conformity score is not considered extreme relative to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-20 Eugene Ndiaye

Conformal prediction (CP) is a method for constructing a prediction interval around the output of a fitted model, whose validity does not rely on the model being correct--the CP interval offers a coverage guarantee that is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-17 Aabesh Bhattacharyya , Rina Foygel Barber

Reliable uncertainty quantification is critical for trustworthy AI. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides prediction sets with distribution-free coverage guarantees, but its two main variants face complementary limitations. Split CP (SCP)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Weicao Deng , Sangwoo Park , Min Li , Osvaldo Simeone

Calibration is crucial in deep learning applications, especially in fields like healthcare and autonomous driving, where accurate confidence estimates are vital for decision-making. However, deep neural networks often suffer from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-17 Linwei Tao , Haolan Guo , Minjing Dong , Chang Xu

Machine-learning techniques are essential in modern collider research, yet their probabilistic outputs often lack calibrated uncertainty estimates and finite-sample guarantees, limiting their direct use in statistical inference and…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2025-12-22 Jack Y. Araz , Michael Spannowsky

Post-hoc calibration of pre-trained models is critical for ensuring reliable inference, especially in safety-critical domains such as healthcare. Conformal Prediction (CP) offers a robust post-hoc calibration framework, providing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Haifeng Wen , Hong Xing , Osvaldo Simeone

Conformal prediction is a framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets for previously unseen data, guaranteeing coverage of the true label with a specified probability. However, the efficiency of these prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

Conformal prediction (CP) is a popular frequentist framework for representing uncertainty by providing prediction sets that guarantee coverage of the true label with a user-adjustable probability. In most applications, CP operates on…

Uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes domains such as scientific discovery and healthcare. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides finite-sample coverage guarantees under exchangeability, an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Siddhartha Laghuvarapu , Rohan Deb , Jimeng Sun

Conformal Prediction (CP) has emerged as a powerful statistical framework for high-stakes classification applications. Instead of predicting a single class, CP generates a prediction set, guaranteed to include the true label with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Ariel Fargion , Lahav Dabah , Tom Tirer

The recent developments of complex deep learning models have led to unprecedented ability to accurately predict across multiple data representation types. Conformal prediction for uncertainty quantification of these models has risen in…

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a powerful statistical machine learning tool to construct uncertainty sets with coverage guarantees, which has fueled its extensive adoption in generating prediction regions for decision-making tasks, e.g.,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-21 Han Wang , Chao Ning

Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a statistical framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets with coverage guarantees. While CP yields uncontrolled prediction set sizes, Backward Conformal Prediction (BCP)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 Junxian Liu , Hao Zeng , Hongxin Wei

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in natural language generation (NLG) tasks remains an open challenge, exacerbated by the closed-source nature of the latest large language models (LLMs). This study investigates applying conformal prediction…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Zhiyuan Wang , Jinhao Duan , Lu Cheng , Yue Zhang , Qingni Wang , Xiaoshuang Shi , Kaidi Xu , Hengtao Shen , Xiaofeng Zhu

In this work, we consider the problem of building distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample conditional coverage guarantees. Conformal prediction (CP) is an increasingly popular framework for building such intervals with…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-29 Rohan Hore , Rina Foygel Barber

Narrowband interference can severely degrade the performance of WiFi links by concentrating significant power on a small portion of the channel. Machine learning (ML) detectors trained on baseband I/Q samples can identify the affected…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-05 Xin Su , Meiyi Zhu , Osvaldo Simeone , Marco Di Renzo , Carlo Fischione

Accurate uncertainty quantification is a major challenge in deep learning, as neural networks can make overconfident errors and assign high confidence predictions to out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. The most popular approaches to estimate…

Deep neural networks have achieved significant success in the last decades, but they are not well-calibrated and often produce unreliable predictions. A large number of literature relies on uncertainty quantification to evaluate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-13 Russell Alan Hart , Linlin Yu , Yifei Lou , Feng Chen
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