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Conformal prediction, a post-hoc, distribution-free, finite-sample method of uncertainty quantification that offers formal coverage guarantees under the assumption of data exchangeability. Unfortunately, the resulting uncertainty regions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Nikolaos Bousias , Lars Lindemann , George Pappas

Conformal prediction is emerging as a popular paradigm for providing rigorous uncertainty quantification in machine learning since it can be easily applied as a post-processing step to already trained models. In this paper, we extend…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Charles Lu , Yaodong Yu , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy , Michael I. Jordan , Ramesh Raskar

Conformal prediction (CP) transforms any model's output into prediction sets guaranteed to include (cover) the true label. CP requires exchangeability, a relaxation of the i.i.d. assumption, to obtain a valid distribution-free coverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-15 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Aleksandar Bojchevski

Unlike the typical classification setting where each instance is associated with a single class, in multi-label learning each instance is associated with multiple classes simultaneously. Therefore the learning task in this setting is to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-30 Harris Papadopoulos

Conformal prediction (CP), a distribution-free uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework, reliably provides valid predictive inference for black-box models. CP constructs prediction sets that contain the true output with a specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Xiaofan Zhou , Baiting Chen , Yu Gui , Lu Cheng

Conformal Predictors (CP) are wrappers around ML models, providing error guarantees under weak assumptions on the data distribution. They are suitable for a wide range of problems, from classification and regression to anomaly detection.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-06 Giovanni Cherubin , Konstantinos Chatzikokolakis , Martin Jaggi

Continual Learning (CL) is essential for enabling self-evolving large language models (LLMs) to adapt and remain effective amid rapid knowledge growth. Yet, despite its importance, little attention has been given to establishing statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Xiaofan Zhou , Lu Cheng

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as powerful tools for predicting outcomes in graph-structured data. However, a notable limitation of GNNs is their inability to provide robust uncertainty estimates, which undermines their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-10 S. Akansha

Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Nien-Shao Wang , Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Yavuz Faruk Bakman , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy

While Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) achieve state-of-the-art accuracy in various applications, they often fall short in accurately estimating their predictive uncertainty and, in turn, fail to recognize when these predictions may be wrong.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-22 Ankur Mallick , Chaitanya Dwivedi , Bhavya Kailkhura , Gauri Joshi , T. Yong-Jin Han

The conformalClassification package implements Transductive Conformal Prediction (TCP) and Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for classification problems. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a framework that complements the predictions of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-17 Niharika Gauraha , Ola Spjuth

Conformal Prediction (CP) stands out as a robust framework for uncertainty quantification, which is crucial for ensuring the reliability of predictions. However, common CP methods heavily rely on data exchangeability, a condition often…

Conformal prediction is an emerging technique for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with a predefined probability. Recent work develops online conformal prediction methods that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Huajun Xi , Kangdao Liu , Hao Zeng , Wenguang Sun , Hongxin Wei

With model trustworthiness being crucial for sensitive real-world applications, practitioners are putting more and more focus on improving the uncertainty calibration of deep neural networks. Calibration errors are designed to quantify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Sebastian G. Gruber , Florian Buettner

Deploying deep learning models in safety-critical applications remains a very challenging task, mandating the provision of assurances for the dependable operation of these models. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods estimate the model's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-23 Daniel Bethell , Simos Gerasimou , Radu Calinescu

Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees, but in many-class classification it may still under-cover specific classes or subpopulations, preventing safe deployment in high-stakes applications. We propose Cluster…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Tomer Lavi , Bracha Shapira , Nadav Rappoport

Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-08 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates

Machine learning (ML) is transforming healthcare, but safe clinical decisions demand reliable uncertainty estimates that standard ML models fail to provide. Conformal prediction (CP) is a popular tool that allows users to turn heuristic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-18 Klaus-Rudolf Kladny , Bernhard Schölkopf , Lisa Koch , Christian F. Baumgartner , Michael Muehlebach

We present Neural Correspondence Prior (NCP), a new paradigm for computing correspondences between 3D shapes. Our approach is fully unsupervised and can lead to high-quality correspondences even in challenging cases such as sparse point…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Souhaib Attaiki , Maks Ovsjanikov

We present Distribution-aware Conformal Prediction (DCP), a unified framework integrating probabilistic predictors like Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensembles, and quantile regression with score-agnostic conformal calibration to produce valid…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Daniel Schweizer , Peter Kuhn , Jayant Sharma , Shivali Dubey , Malte von Ramin , Christoph Brockt-Haßauer