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Related papers: Sequential Persuasion Using Limited Experiments

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How should an agent (the sender) observing multi-dimensional data (the state vector) persuade another agent to take the desired action? We show that it is always optimal for the sender to perform a (non-linear) dimension reduction by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-05 Semyon Malamud , Andreas Schrimpf

The problem of sequentially maximizing the expectation of a function seeks to maximize the expected value of a function of interest without having direct control on its features. Instead, the distribution of such features depends on a given…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-26 Diego Martinez-Taboada , Dino Sejdinovic

Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) is a methodology to identify experiments that are expected to yield informative data. Recent work in cognitive science considered BOED for computational models of human behavior with tractable and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-01 Simon Valentin , Steven Kleinegesse , Neil R. Bramley , Michael U. Gutmann , Christopher G. Lucas

This work studies a dynamic mechanism design problem in which a principal delegates decision makings to a group of privately-informed agents without the monetary transfer or burning. We consider that the principal privately possesses…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-01-19 Tao Zhang , Quanyan Zhu

We study the sequential testing problem of two alternative hypotheses regarding an unknown parameter in an exponential family when observations are costly. In a Bayesian setting, the problem can be embedded in a Markovian framework. Using…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-22 Erik Ekström , Yuqiong Wang

We consider the classical mathematical economics problem of {\em Bayesian optimal mechanism design} where a principal aims to optimize expected revenue when allocating resources to self-interested agents with preferences drawn from a known…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2010-01-15 Shuchi Chawla , Jason Hartline , David Malec , Balasubramanian Sivan

Bayesian optimal experiments that maximize the information gained from collected data are critical to efficiently identify behavioral models. We extend a seminal method for designing Bayesian optimal experiments by introducing two…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-19 Stefano Balietti , Brennan Klein , Christoph Riedl

We study the problem of causal discovery through targeted interventions. Starting from few observational measurements, we follow a Bayesian active learning approach to perform those experiments which, in expectation with respect to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-10 Julius von Kügelgen , Paul K Rubenstein , Bernhard Schölkopf , Adrian Weller

With the growing needs of online A/B testing to support the innovation in industry, the opportunity cost of running an experiment becomes non-negligible. Therefore, there is an increasing demand for an efficient continuous monitoring…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-04 Runzhe Wan , Yu Liu , James McQueen , Doug Hains , Rui Song

Bayesian optimization is an effective method for finding extrema of a black-box function. We propose a new type of Bayesian optimization for learning user preferences in high-dimensional spaces. The central assumption is that the underlying…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-17 Petrus Mikkola , Milica Todorović , Jari Järvi , Patrick Rinke , Samuel Kaski

The real-world testing of decisions made using causal machine learning models is an essential prerequisite for their successful application. We focus on evaluating and improving contextual treatment assignment decisions: these are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-13 Desi R. Ivanova , Joel Jennings , Cheng Zhang , Adam Foster

The non-convexity and intractability of distributionally robust chance constraints make them challenging to cope with. From a data-driven perspective, we propose formulating it as a robust optimization problem to ensure that the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-06-23 Zhiping Chen , Wentao Ma , Bingbing Ji

In the Bayesian approach to sequential decision making, exact calculation of the (subjective) utility is intractable. This extends to most special cases of interest, such as reinforcement learning problems. While utility bounds are known to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2011-11-14 Christos Dimitrakakis

Classical Bayesian persuasion studies how a sender influences receivers through carefully designed signaling policies within a single strategic interaction. In many real-world environments, such interactions are repeated across multiple…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Ata Poyraz Turna , Asrin Efe Yorulmaz , Tamer Başar

Simulation models of critical systems often have parameters that need to be calibrated using observed data. For expensive simulation models, calibration is done using an emulator of the simulation model built on simulation output at…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-24 Özge Sürer , Matthew Plumlee , Stefan M. Wild

Scientific experiments are usually expensive due to complex experimental preparation and processing. Experimental design is therefore involved with the task of finding the optimal experimental input that results in the desirable output by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-27 Cheng Li , Sunil Gupta , Santu Rana , Vu Nguyen , Antonio Robles-Kelly , Svetha Venkatesh

The process of calibrating computer models of natural phenomena is essential for applications in the physical sciences, where plenty of domain knowledge can be embedded into simulations and then calibrated against real observations. Current…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-20 Rafael Oliveira , Dino Sejdinovic , David Howard , Edwin V. Bonilla

Bayesian experimental design (BED) is a principled framework for data-efficient design of sequential experiments. However, existing BED methods are unable to adapt to dynamic constraints inherent in real-world tasks due to budget…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-27 Yujia Guo , Daolang Huang , Xinyu Zhang , Sammie Katt , Samuel Kaski , Ayush Bharti

We explore whether ambiguous communication can be beneficial to the sender in a persuasion problem, when the receiver (and possibly the sender) is ambiguity averse. Our analysis highlights the necessity of using a collection of experiments…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-02-19 Xiaoyu Cheng , Peter Klibanoff , Sujoy Mukerji , Ludovic Renou

Controlled experiments (A/B tests or randomized field experiments) are the de facto standard to make data-driven decisions when implementing changes and observing customer responses. The methodology to analyze such experiments should be…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-06 Shafi Kamalbasha , Manuel J. A. Eugster
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