Related papers: Machine learning with data assimilation and uncert…

The understanding of nonlinear, high dimensional flows, e.g, atmospheric and ocean flows, is critical to address the impacts of global climate change. Data Assimilation techniques combine physical models and observational data, often in a…

Consistency-based methods have emerged as an effective approach to uncertainty quantification (UQ) in large language models. These methods typically rely on several generations obtained via multinomial sampling, measuring their agreement…

Shallow water equations are extensively considered in the domains of oceans, atmospheric modelling, and engineering research (Franca et al., 2022), which play significant roles in floods and tsunami governance. Nonetheless, the accurate…

Using a dynamical model to make predictions about a system has many sources of error. These can include errors in how the model was initialised but also errors in the dynamics of the model itself. For many applications in data assimilation,…

Covariance localization is a critical component of ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) and many current localization schemes simply dampen correlations as a function of distance. Increases in computational resources, broadening scope of…

In computational materials science, mechanical properties are typically extracted from simulations by means of analysis routines that seek to mimic their experimental counterparts. However, simulated data often exhibit uncertainties that…

We present a comparison of methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning algorithms in the context of a simple physical system. Three of the most common uncertainty quantification methods - Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN),…

If Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is crucial to achieve trustworthy Machine Learning (ML), most UQ methods suffer from disparate and inconsistent evaluation protocols. We claim this inconsistency results from the unclear requirements the…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial in safety-critical applications such as medical image segmentation. Total uncertainty is typically decomposed into data-related aleatoric uncertainty (AU) and model-related epistemic uncertainty…

Big data and machine learning are driving comprehensive economic and social transformations and are rapidly re-shaping the toolbox and the methodologies of applied scientists. Machine learning tools are designed to learn functions from data…

Assessing the quality of aleatoric uncertainty estimates from uncertainty quantification (UQ) deep learning methods is important in scientific contexts, where uncertainty is physically meaningful and important to characterize and interpret…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial in machine learning, yet most (axiomatic) studies of uncertainty measures focus on classification, leaving a gap in regression settings with limited formal justification and evaluations. In this…

Techniques from artificial intelligence and machine learning are increasingly employed in nuclear theory, however, the uncertainties that arise from the complex parameter manifold encoded by the neural networks are often overlooked.…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an essential tool for applying deep neural networks (DNNs) to real world tasks, as it attaches a degree of confidence to DNN outputs. However, despite its benefits, UQ is often left out of the standard DNN…

The data-aware method of distributions (DA-MD) is a low-dimension data assimilation procedure to forecast the behavior of dynamical systems described by differential equations. It combines sequential Bayesian update with the MD, such that…

Machine-learning models of atomic-scale interactions achieve the accuracy of the quantum mechanical calculations on which they are trained, but at a dramatically lower computational cost. Their predictions can be made trustworthy by…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) includes the characterization, integration, and propagation of uncertainties that result from stochastic variations and a lack of knowledge or data in the natural world. Monte Carlo (MC) method is a…

We introduce a novel approach for calibrating uncertainty quantification (UQ) tailored for multi-modal large language models (LLMs). Existing state-of-the-art UQ methods rely on consistency among multiple responses generated by the LLM on…

Accurate representations of unknown and sub-grid physical processes through parameterizations (or closure) in numerical simulations with quantified uncertainty are critical for resolving the coarse-grained partial differential equations…

Data Assimilation (DA) plays a critical role in atmospheric science by reconstructing spatially continous estimates of the system state, which serves as initial conditions for scientific analysis. While recent advances in diffusion models…