Related papers: Variational Bayesian analysis of survival data usi…
Volatility clustering is a common phenomenon in financial time series. Typically, linear models can be used to describe the temporal autocorrelation of the (logarithmic) variance of returns. Considering the difficulty in estimating this…
We present a Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for detecting hidden variables in a continuous time Bayesian network (CTBN), which uses reversible jumps in the sense defined by (Green 1995). In common with several…
Survival models are used to analyze time-to-event data in a variety of disciplines. Proportional hazard models provide interpretable parameter estimates, but proportional hazards assumptions are not always appropriate. Non-parametric models…
Along with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, variational inference (VI) has emerged as a central computational approach to large-scale Bayesian inference. Rather than sampling from the true posterior $\pi$, VI aims at producing a…
An important task in survival analysis is choosing a structure for the relationship between covariates of interest and the time-to-event outcome. For example, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model structures each covariate effect as a…
We consider continuous-time diffusion models driven by fractional Brownian motion. Observations are assumed to possess a non-trivial likelihood given the latent path. Due to the non-Markovianity and high-dimensionality of the latent paths,…
Probabilistic approaches for tensor factorization aim to extract meaningful structure from incomplete data by postulating low rank constraints. Recently, variational Bayesian (VB) inference techniques have successfully been applied to large…
Multilevel models (MLMs) are a central building block of the Bayesian workflow. They enable joint, interpretable modeling of data across hierarchical levels and provide a fully probabilistic quantification of uncertainty. Despite their…
Linear regression with measurement error in the covariates is a heavily studied topic, however, the statistics/econometrics literature is almost silent to estimating a multi-equation model with measurement error. This paper considers a…
Variational logistic regression is a popular method for approximate Bayesian inference seeing wide-spread use in many areas of machine learning including: Bayesian optimization, reinforcement learning and multi-instance learning to name a…
Variational inference has recently emerged as a popular alternative to the classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in large-scale Bayesian inference. The core idea is to trade statistical accuracy for computational efficiency. In this…
Optimal data detection in massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems often requires prohibitively high computational complexity. A variety of detection algorithms have been proposed in the literature, offering different…
In this paper we develop a Bayesian procedure for estimating multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) using state space models. A multiplicative model based on inverted Wishart and multivariate singular beta distributions is proposed for…
We show how the random coefficient logistic demand (BLP) model can be phrased as an automatically differentiable moment function, including the incorporation of numerical safeguards proposed in the literature. This allows gradient-based…
Compositional data consist of known compositions vectors whose components are positive and defined in the interval (0,1) representing proportions or fractions of a "whole". The sum of these components must be equal to one. Compositional…
Exponential random graph models are extremely difficult models to handle from a statistical viewpoint, since their normalising constant, which depends on model parameters, is available only in very trivial cases. We show how inference can…
When working with multimodal Bayesian posterior distributions, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have difficulty moving between modes, and default variational or mode-based approximate inferences will understate posterior…
Model comparison is the cornerstone of theoretical progress in psychological research. Common practice overwhelmingly relies on tools that evaluate competing models by balancing in-sample descriptive adequacy against model flexibility, with…
Bayesian Decision Trees (DTs) are generally considered a more advanced and accurate model than a regular Decision Tree (DT) because they can handle complex and uncertain data. Existing work on Bayesian DTs uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo…
We study the implementation of Automatic Differentiation Variational inference (ADVI) for Bayesian inference on regression models with bridge penalization. The bridge approach uses $\ell_{\alpha}$ norm, with $\alpha \in (0, +\infty)$ to…