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Variational Bayes (VB) is a scalable alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for Bayesian posterior inference. Though popular, VB comes with few theoretical guarantees, most of which focus on well-specified models. However, models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-13 Yixin Wang , David M. Blei

Variational Bayesian Monte Carlo (VBMC) is a recently introduced framework that uses Gaussian process surrogates to perform approximate Bayesian inference in models with black-box, non-cheap likelihoods. In this work, we extend VBMC to deal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-20 Luigi Acerbi

Bayesian approaches to clinical analyses for the purposes of patient phenotyping have been limited by the computational challenges associated with applying the Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) approach to large real-world data. Approximate…

Applications · Statistics 2023-03-27 Brian Buckley , Adrian O'Hagan , Marie Galligan

Accelerated failure time (AFT) models are frequently used to model survival data, providing a direct quantification of the relationship between event times and covariates. These models allow for the acceleration or deceleration of failure…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-23 Aishwarya Bhaskaran , Ding Ma , Benoit Liquet , Angela Hong , Stephane Heritier , Serigne N Lo , Jun Ma

Variational Bayes (VB) is rapidly becoming a popular tool for Bayesian inference in statistical modeling. However, the existing VB algorithms are restricted to cases where the likelihood is tractable, which precludes the use of VB in many…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-05 Minh-Ngoc Tran , David J. Nott , Robert Kohn

The hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm is applied for the Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model. We use the HMC algorithm for the Markov chain Monte Carlo updates of volatility variables of the SV model. First we…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2010-12-30 Tetsuya Takaishi

Despite the popularism of Bayesian neural networks in recent years, its use is somewhat limited in complex and big data situations due to the computational cost associated with full posterior evaluations. Variational Bayes (VB) provides a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-30 Shrijita Bhattacharya , Tapabrata Maiti

Bayesian analyses combine information represented by different terms in a joint Bayesian model. When one or more of the terms is misspecified, it can be helpful to restrict the use of information from suspect model components to modify…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-27 Xuejun Yu , David J. Nott , Michael Stanley Smith

This paper establishes the asymptotic consistency of the {\it loss-calibrated variational Bayes} (LCVB) method. LCVB was proposed in~\cite{LaSiGh2011} as a method for approximately computing Bayesian posteriors in a `loss aware' manner.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-05 Prateek Jaiswal , Harsha Honnappa , Vinayak A. Rao

Structural equation models are commonly used to capture the relationship between sets of observed and unobservable variables. Traditionally these models are fitted using frequentist approaches but recently researchers and practitioners have…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-22 Khue-Dung Dang , Luca Maestrini

Deriving Bayesian inference for exponential random graph models (ERGMs) is a challenging "doubly intractable" problem as the normalizing constants of the likelihood and posterior density are both intractable. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-26 Linda S. L. Tan , Nial Friel

Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is considered the gold standard for Bayesian inference in large-scale models, such as Bayesian neural networks. Since practitioners face speed versus accuracy tradeoffs in these models,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Antonios Alexos , Alex Boyd , Stephan Mandt

We propose a unified, yet simple to code, non-conjugate variational Bayes algorithm for posterior approximation of generic Bayesian generalized mixed effect models. Specifically, we consider regression models identified by a linear…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-14 Cristian Castiglione , Mauro Bernardi

Bayesian variable selection is a powerful tool for data analysis, as it offers a principled method for variable selection that accounts for prior information and uncertainty. However, wider adoption of Bayesian variable selection has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-13 Martin Jankowiak

Massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) communications using low-resolution analog-to-digital converters (ADCs) is a promising technology for providing high spectral and energy efficiency with affordable hardware cost and power…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-12-06 Ly V. Nguyen , A. Lee Swindlehurst , Duy H. N. Nguyen

Traditionally, the field of computational Bayesian statistics has been divided into two main subfields: variational methods and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). In recent years, however, several methods have been proposed based on combining…

Computation · Statistics 2017-04-19 Cheng Zhang , Babak Shahbaba , Hongkai Zhao

We introduce a semi-parametric Bayesian model for survival analysis. The model is centred on a parametric baseline hazard, and uses a Gaussian process to model variations away from it nonparametrically, as well as dependence on covariates.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-04 Tamara Fernández , Nicolás Rivera , Yee Whye Teh

Mean-field variational inference is a method for approximate Bayesian posterior inference. It approximates a full posterior distribution with a factorized set of distributions by maximizing a lower bound on the marginal likelihood. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-03 John Paisley , David Blei , Michael Jordan

This paper develops a Bayesian procedure for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of multivariate time series. The foundation of this work is the matrix-variate dynamic linear model, for the volatility of which we adopt a…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 K. Triantafyllopoulos

Variational regression methods are an increasingly popular tool for their efficient estimation of complex. Given the mixed model representation of penalized effects, additive regression models with smoothed effects and scalar-on-function…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-13 Mark J. Meyer , Junyi Wei