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We study random subgraphs of an arbitrary finite connected transitive graph $\mathbb G$ obtained by independently deleting edges with probability $1-p$. Let $V$ be the number of vertices in $\mathbb G$, and let $\Omega$ be their degree. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Christian Borgs , Jennifer T. Chayes , Remco van der Hofstad , Gordon Slade , Joel Spencer

We introduce a very general model of an inhomogenous random graph with independence between the edges, which scales so that the number of edges is linear in the number of vertices. This scaling corresponds to the p=c/n scaling for G(n,p)…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-11-10 Bela Bollobas , Svante Janson , Oliver Riordan

We present a formalization of the well-known thesis that, in the case of independent identically distributed random variables $X_1,\dots,X_n$ with power-like tails of index $\alpha\in(0,2)$, large deviations of the sum $X_1+\dots+X_n$ are…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-29 Iosif Pinelis

Overload-induced cascading failures can cause extreme disruptions in a wide range of networked systems, such as power grids, transportation networks, or financial systems. Empirical studies across domains report that the size of such…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-01-06 Agnieszka Janicka , Fiona Sloothaak , Maria Vlasiou , Bert Zwart

We consider a Wigner matrix $A$ with entries tail decaying as $x^{-\alpha}$ with $2<\alpha<4$ for large $x$ and study fluctuations of linear statistics $N^{-1}\operatorname{Tr}\varphi(A)$. The behavior of such fluctuations has been…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-01-20 Florent Benaych-Georges , Anna Maltsev

Empirical distributions have their in-sample maxima as natural censoring. We look at the "hidden tail", that is, the part of the distribution in excess of the maximum for a sample size of $n$. Using extreme value theory, we examine the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-14 Nassim Nicholas Taleb

In this paper, we study the upper tail large deviation for the one-dimensional frog model. In this model, sleeping and active frogs are assigned to vertices on $\mathbb Z$. While sleeping frogs do not move, the active ones move as…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-06 Van Hao Can , Naoki Kubota , Shuta Nakajima

This article discusses modelling of the tail of a multivariate distribution function by means of a large deviation principle (LDP), and its application to the estimation of the probability of a multivariate extreme event from a sample of n…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-23 Cees de Valk

We study the appearance of powers of Hamilton cycles in pseudorandom graphs, using the following comparatively weak pseudorandomness notion. A graph $G$ is $(\varepsilon,p,k,\ell)$-pseudorandom if for all disjoint $X$ and $Y\subset V(G)$…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2014-02-07 Peter Allen , Julia Böttcher , Hiep Hàn , Yury Person , Yoshiharu Kohayakawa

We study the powers of Hamiltonian cycles in randomly augmented Dirac graphs, that is, $n$-vertex graphs $G$ with minimum degree at least $(1/2+\varepsilon)n$ to which some random edges are added. For any Dirac graph and every integer…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2023-04-07 Sylwia Antoniuk , Andrzej Dudek , Andrzej Ruciński

We initiate a study of large deviations for block model random graphs in the dense regime. Following Chatterjee-Varadhan(2011), we establish an LDP for dense block models, viewed as random graphons. As an application of our result, we study…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-17 Christian Borgs , Jennifer Chayes , Julia Gaudio , Samantha Petti , Subhabrata Sen

We propose a power-law $m$-uniform random hypergraph on $n$ vertexes. In this hypergraph, each vertex is independently assigned a random weight from a power-law distribution with exponent $\alpha\in(0,\infty)$ and the hyperedge…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2021-08-23 Mingao Yuan

Strong anomalous diffusion is {often} characterized by a piecewise-linear spectrum of the moments of displacement. The spectrum is characterized by slopes $\xi$ and $\zeta$ for small and large moments, respectively, and by the critical…

Large deviation principles and related results are given for a class of Markov chains associated to the "leaves" in random recursive trees and preferential attachment random graphs, as well as the "cherries" in Yule trees. In particular,…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-01-22 W. Bryc , D. Minda , S. Sethuraman

We study stochastic dominance between portfolios of independent and identically distributed (iid) extremely heavy-tailed (i.e., infinite-mean) Pareto random variables. With the notion of majorization order, we show that a more diversified…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-02-11 Yuyu Chen , Taizhong Hu , Ruodu Wang , Zhenfeng Zou

In general, obtaining the exact steady-state distribution of queue lengths is not feasible. Therefore, we establish bounds for the tail probabilities of queue lengths. Specifically, we examine queueing systems under Heavy-Traffic (HT)…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-21 Prakirt Raj Jhunjhunwala , Daniela Hurtado-Lange , Siva Theja Maguluri

Heavy-tailed distributions are infamously difficult to estimate because their moments tend to infinity as the shape of the tail decay increases. Nevertheless, this study shows the utilization of a modified group of moments for estimating a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-31 Amenah AL-Najafi , Ugur Tirnakli , Kenric P. Nelson

In this work, we investigate how to develop sharp concentration inequalities for sub-Weibull random variables, including sub-Gaussian and sub-exponential distributions. Although the random variables may not be sub-Guassian, the tail…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-30 Yinan Shen , Jinchi Lv

We investigate the existence and severity of local modes in posterior distributions from Bayesian analyses. These are known to occur in posterior tails resulting from heavy-tailed error models such as those used in robust regression. To…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-09 Sanket Agrawal , Sebastiano Grazzi , Gareth O. Roberts

For any fixed simple graph $H=(V,E)$ and any fixed $u>0$, we establish the leading order of the exponential rate function for the probability that the number of copies of $H$ in the Erd\H{o}s--R\'enyi graph $G(n,p)$ exceeds its expectation…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-28 Nicholas A. Cook , Amir Dembo
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