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This work presents a data-driven method for learning low-dimensional time-dependent physics-based surrogate models whose predictions are endowed with uncertainty estimates. We use the operator inference approach to model reduction that…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-03-19 Shane A. McQuarrie , Anirban Chaudhuri , Karen E. Willcox , Mengwu Guo

Gaussian process emulators of computationally expensive computer codes provide fast statistical approximations to model physical processes. The training of these surrogates depends on the set of design points chosen to run the simulator.…

Computation · Statistics 2016-08-16 A. Garbuno-Inigo , F. A. DiazDelaO , K. M. Zuev

We consider the sample efficient estimation of failure probabilities from expensive oracle evaluations of a limit state function via importance sampling (IS). In contrast to conventional ``two stage'' approaches, which first train a…

Computation · Statistics 2026-04-10 Ashwin Renganathan , Annie S. Booth

Many real-world applications demand accurate and fast predictions, as well as reliable uncertainty estimates. However, quantifying uncertainty on high-dimensional predictions is still a severely under-investigated problem, especially when…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Saurabh Deshpande , Hussein Rappel , Mark Hobbs , Stéphane P. A. Bordas , Jakub Lengiewicz

Surrogate models are used to alleviate the computational burden in engineering tasks, which require the repeated evaluation of computationally demanding models of physical systems, such as the efficient propagation of uncertainties. For…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-28 Felix Schneider , Iason Papaioannou , Gerhard Müller

In this paper an efficient and reliable method for stochastic yield estimation is presented. Since one main challenge of uncertainty quantification is the computational feasibility, we propose a hybrid approach where most of the Monte Carlo…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2020-10-12 Mona Fuhrländer , Sebastian Schöps

Design of experiments is a fundamental topic in applied statistics with a long history. Yet its application is often limited by the complexity and costliness of constructing experimental designs, which involve searching a high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-29 Matthew T. Pratola , C. Devon Lin , Peter F. Craigmile

Bayesian optimization (BO) has well-documented merits for optimizing black-box functions with an expensive evaluation cost. Such functions emerge in applications as diverse as hyperparameter tuning, drug discovery, and robotics. BO hinges…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-28 Qin Lu , Konstantinos D. Polyzos , Bingcong Li , Georgios B. Giannakis

The increased demand for online prediction and the growing availability of large data sets drives the need for computationally efficient models. While exact Gaussian process regression shows various favorable theoretical properties…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-02 Armin Lederer , Alejandro Jose Ordonez Conejo , Korbinian Maier , Wenxin Xiao , Jonas Umlauft , Sandra Hirche

Model selection in Gaussian processes scales prohibitively with the size of the training dataset, both in time and memory. While many approximations exist, all incur inevitable approximation error. Recent work accounts for this error in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-08 Jonathan Wenger , Kaiwen Wu , Philipp Hennig , Jacob R. Gardner , Geoff Pleiss , John P. Cunningham

The state-of-the-art linked Gaussian process offers a way to build analytical emulators for systems of computer models. We generalize the closed form expressions for the linked Gaussian process under the squared exponential kernel to a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-09 Deyu Ming , Serge Guillas

Gaussian process (GP) regression is a popular surrogate modeling tool for computer simulations in engineering and scientific domains. However, it often struggles with high computational costs and low prediction accuracy when the simulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Lulu Kang , Minshen Xu

In this paper, we focus on developing efficient sensitivity analysis methods for a computationally expensive objective function $f(x)$ in the case that the minimization of it has just been performed. Here "computationally expensive" means…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-02-24 Yilun Wang , Christine A. Shoemaker

A key requirement for the current generation of artificial decision-makers is that they should adapt well to changes in unexpected situations. This paper addresses the situation in which an AI for aerial dog fighting, with tunable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-14 Brett W. Israelsen , Nisar Ahmed , Kenneth Center , Roderick Green , Winston Bennett

Many fields of science and engineering rely on running simulations with complex and computationally expensive models to understand the involved processes in the system of interest. Nevertheless, the high cost involved hamper reliable and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-16 Daniel Heestermans Svendsen , Luca Martino , Gustau Camps-Valls

Gaussian process regression is a well-established Bayesian machine learning method. We propose a new approach to Gaussian process regression using quantum kernels based on parameterized quantum circuits. By employing a hardware-efficient…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-02-06 Frederic Rapp , Marco Roth

This paper introduces a surrogate modeling scheme based on Grassmannian manifold learning to be used for cost-efficient predictions of high-dimensional stochastic systems. The method exploits subspace-structured features of each solution by…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-08-26 Dimitris G. Giovanis , Michael D. Shields

We consider a class of stochastic programming problems where the implicitly decision-dependent random variable follows a nonparametric regression model with heteroscedastic error. The Clarke subdifferential and surrogate functions are not…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-13 Boyang Shen , Junyi Liu

Gaussian Processes face two primary challenges: constructing models for large datasets and selecting the optimal model. This master's thesis tackles these challenges in the low-dimensional case. We examine recent convergence results to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-13 Marcel Neugebauer

Accurate surrogate construction for PDE-driven high-dimensional rare-event simulation is challenging when performance evaluations are expensive. Since a globally accurate surrogate may require many high-fidelity evaluations, adaptive…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-18 Zhiwei Gao , George Karniadakis