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Empirical likelihood approach is one of non-parametric statistical methods, which is applied to the hypothesis testing or construction of confidence regions for pivotal unknown quantities. This method has been applied to the case of…
We propose a family of models that enable predictive estimation of time-varying extreme event probabilities in heavy-tailed and nonlinearly dependent time series. The models are a white noise process with conditionally log-Laplace…
We present an empirical study of the subordination hypothesis for a stochastic time series of a stock price. The fluctuating rate of trading is identified with the stochastic variance of the stock price, as in the continuous-time random…
We present elliptical processes, a family of non-parametric probabilistic models that subsume Gaussian processes and Student's t processes. This generalization includes a range of new heavy-tailed behaviors while retaining computational…
Many models of physics beyond the Standard Model include towers of particles whose masses follow an approximately periodic pattern with little spacing between them. These resonances might be too weak to detect individually, but could be…
Atypical, rare trajectories of dynamical systems are important: they are often the paths for chemical reactions, the haven of (relative) stability of planetary systems, the rogue waves that are detected in oil platforms, the structures that…
Temporal networks model how the interaction between elements in a complex system evolve over time. Just like complex systems display collective dynamics, here we interpret temporal networks as trajectories performing a collective motion in…
Oscillators are ubiquitous in nature, and usually associated with the existence of an asymptotic phase that governs the long-term dynamics of the oscillator. % We show that asymptotic phase can be estimated using a carefully chosen series…
In this article, we study the dynamics of a nonlinear system governed by an ordinary differential equation under the combined influence of fast periodic sampling with period $\delta$ and small jump noise of size $\varepsilon, 0<…
Stochastic Spatio-Temporal processes are prevalent across domains ranging from modeling of plasma to the turbulence in fluids to the wave function of quantum systems. This letter studies a measure-theoretic description of such systems by…
Methods of estimation and forecasting for stationary models are well known in classical time series analysis. However, stationarity is an idealization which, in practice, can at best hold as an approximation, but for many time series may be…
Temporal causal representation learning methods assume that causal mechanisms switch instantaneously between discrete domains, yet real-world systems often exhibit continuous mechanism transitions. For example, a vehicle's dynamics evolve…
We consider several stochastic service systems, and study the asymptotic behavior of the moments of various quantities that have application to models for random interval graphs and algorithms for searching for an idle server or empty…
The statistical properties of a stochastic process may be described (1)by the expectation values of the observables, (2)by the probability distribution functions or (3)by probability measures on path space. Here an analysis of level (3) is…
Time-periodic form or expression is a ubiquitous natural and man-made phenomenon observable in all the scientific and engineering disciplines. In this article, we propose a theory of periodic sequence (TPS), which can be formulated as a…
This paper introduces a family of recursively defined estimators of the parameters of a diffusion process. We use ideas of stochastic algorithms for the construction of the estimators. Asymptotic consistency of these estimators and…
We propose novel parameter estimation algorithms for a class of dynamical systems with nonlinear parametrization. The class is initially restricted to smooth monotonic functions with respect to a linear functional of the parameters. We show…
Inferring models, predicting the future, and estimating the entropy rate of discrete-time, discrete-event processes is well-worn ground. However, a much broader class of discrete-event processes operates in continuous-time. Here, we provide…
Temporal logics over finite traces have recently seen wide application in a number of areas, from business process modelling, monitoring, and mining to planning and decision making. However, real-life dynamic systems contain a degree of…
The paper presents a systematic theory for asymptotic inference of autocovariances of stationary processes. We consider nonparametric tests for serial correlations based on the maximum (or ${\cal L}^\infty$) and the quadratic (or ${\cal…