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Global climate models (GCMs), typically run at ~100-km resolution, capture large-scale environmental conditions but cannot resolve convection and cloud processes at kilometer scales. Convection-permitting models offer higher-resolution…
Sub-seasonal climate forecasting (SSF) is the prediction of key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation on the 2-week to 2-month time horizon. Skillful SSF would have substantial societal value in areas such as agricultural…
The South and East Asian summer monsoons are globally significant meteorological features, creating a strongly seasonal pattern of precipitation. The stability of the monsoon is of extreme importance for a vast range of ecosystems and for…
In recent years, there has been growing interest in using Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) signal delays to predict rainfall. However, the occurrence of rainfall is dependent on a myriad of…
Understanding how vegetation loss alters rainfall remains a major challenge in climate and hydrological science, as deforestation modifies precipitation through heterogeneous, seasonal and nonlinear land-atmosphere feedbacks. Existing…
Environmental phenomena are influenced by complex interactions among various factors. For instance, the amount of rainfall measured at different stations within a given area is shaped by atmospheric conditions, orography, and physics of…
Precipitation is a large-scale, spatio-temporally heterogeneous phenomenon, with frequent anomalies exhibiting unusually high or low values. We use Markov Random Fields (MRFs) to detect spatio-temporally coherent anomalies in gridded annual…
In contrast to the wet gets wetter and dry gets drier paradigm, here, using observations and climate model simulations, we show that the mean rainfall over the semi-arid northwest parts of India and Pakistan has increased by 10 to 50…
The accurate prediction of precipitation is important to allow for reliable warnings of flood or drought risk in a changing climate. However, to make trust-worthy predictions of precipitation, at a local scale, is one of the most difficult…
A coupled map model for cloud dynamics is proposed, which consists of the successive operations of the physical processes; buoyancy, diffusion, viscosity, adiabatic expansion, fall of a droplet by gravity, descent flow dragged by the…
Rainfall is an important variable to be able to monitor and forecast across Africa, due to its impact on agriculture, food security, climate related diseases and public health. Numerical Weather Models (NWM) are an important component of…
We examine several different simplified approaches for modelling the chemistry of CO in three-dimensional numerical simulations of turbulent molecular clouds. We compare the different models both by looking at the behaviour of integrated…
Recent research has community have shown that tropical convection and rainfall is sensitive to mid-tropospheric humidity. Therefore it has been suggested to improve the representation of moist convection by making cumulus parameterizations…
We carry out a study of the statistical distribution of rainfall precipitation data for 20 cites in India. We have determined the best-fit probability distribution for these cities from the monthly precipitation data spanning 100 years of…
Conformal prediction can yield statistically valid prediction intervals for any regression model, with no model modifications and small computational costs. To assess its practical value, we apply conformal methods to quantify uncertainty…
We present a three-dimensional model, based on cohesive spherical particles, of rain-induced landslides. The rainwater infiltration into the soil follow the either the fractional or the fractal diffusion equations. We solve analytically the…
Short-term (0-24 hours) precipitation forecasting is highly valuable to socioeconomic activities and public safety. However, the highly complex evolution patterns of precipitation events, the extreme imbalance between precipitation and…
Earth System Models (ESM) are important tools that allow us to understand and quantify the physical, chemical & biological mechanisms governing the rates of change of elements of the Earth System, comprising of the atmosphere, ocean, land,…
We present a method for modelling star-forming clouds that combines two different models of the thermal evolution of the interstellar medium (ISM). In the combined model, where the densities are low enough that at least some part of the…
Accurately quantifying air-sea fluxes is important for understanding air-sea interactions and improving coupled weather and climate systems. This study introduces a probabilistic framework to represent the highly variable nature of air-sea…