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We propose a novel approach for change-point detection and parameter learning in multivariate non-stationary time series exhibiting oscillatory behaviour. We approximate the process through a piecewise function defined by a sum of…
We propose a method to approximate continuous-time, continuous-state stochastic processes by a discrete-time Markov chain defined on a nonuniform grid. Our method provides exact moment matching for processes whose first and second moments…
Performative prediction is a framework that captures distribution shifts that occur during the training of machine learning models due to their deployment. As the trained model is used, data generation causes the model to evolve, leading to…
This paper introduces a linear state-space model with time-varying dynamics. The time dependency is obtained by forming the state dynamics matrix as a time-varying linear combination of a set of matrices. The time dependency of the weights…
We consider the problem of reconstructing the dynamic state matrix of transmission power grids from time-stamped PMU measurements in the regime of ambient fluctuations. Using a maximum likelihood based approach, we construct a family of…
The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…
Estimating and detecting faults is crucial in ensuring safe and efficient automated systems. In the presence of disturbances, noise or varying system dynamics, such estimation is even more challenging. To address this challenge, this…
Learning a Markov Decision Process (MDP) from a fixed batch of trajectories is a non-trivial task whose outcome's quality depends on both the amount and the diversity of the sampled regions of the state-action space. Yet, many MDPs are…
State estimation incorporates the feedback in optimization based advanced process control systems and is very important for the performance of model predictive control. We describe the extended Kalman filter, the unscented Kalman filter,…
In this paper we consider the machine learning (ML) task of predicting tipping point transitions and long-term post-tipping-point behavior associated with the time evolution of an unknown (or partially unknown), non-stationary, potentially…
We introduce a new sequential methodology to calibrate the fixed parameters and track the stochastic dynamical variables of a state-space system. The proposed method is based on the nested hybrid filtering (NHF) framework of [1], that…
Particle filtering is a popular method for inferring latent states in stochastic dynamical systems, whose theoretical properties have been well studied in machine learning and statistics communities. In many control problems, e.g.,…
This paper deals with the state prediction of nonlinear stochastic dynamic systems. The emphasis is laid on a solution to the integral Chapman-Kolmogorov equation by a deterministic-integration-rule-based point-mass method. A novel concept…
This paper develops a new nonlinear filter, called Moment-based Kalman Filter (MKF), using the exact moment propagation method. Existing state estimation methods use linearization techniques or sampling points to compute approximate values…
The accurate prediction of time-changing covariances is an important problem in the modeling of multivariate financial data. However, some of the most popular models suffer from a) overfitting problems and multiple local optima, b) failure…
We consider the discrete-time filtering problem in scenarios where the observation noise is low or degenerate. We focus on the case where the observation equation is a linear function of the state and the data involve additive noise.…
In this paper, approximate Linear Minimum Variance (LMV) filters for continuous-discrete state space models are introduced. The filters are obtained by means of a recursive approximation to the predictions for the first two moments of the…
We consider state and parameter estimation for a dynamical system having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. It has been shown that the robustness of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating time-invariant…
In this paper, a hybrid measurement- and model-based method is proposed which can estimate the dynamic state Jacobian matrix in near real-time. The proposed method is computationally efficient and robust to the variation of network…
This paper proposes an adaptive stochastic Model Predictive Control (MPC) strategy for stable linear time invariant systems in the presence of bounded disturbances. We consider multi-input multi-output systems that can be expressed by a…