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We propose a time-adaptive predictor/multi-corrector method to solve hyperbolic partial differential equations, based on the generalized-$\alpha$ scheme that provides user-control on the numerical dissipation and second-order accuracy in…
This paper details how to parameterize the posterior distribution of state-space systems to generate improved optimization problems for system identification using variational inference. Three different parameterizations of the assumed…
We present a new method, Non-Stationary Forward Flux Sampling, that allows efficient simulation of rare events in both stationary and non-stationary stochastic systems. The method uses stochastic branching and pruning to achieve uniform…
Detecting changes in high-dimensional time series is difficult because it involves the comparison of probability densities that need to be estimated from finite samples. In this paper, we present the first feature extraction method tailored…
Probabilistic modeling provides the capability to represent and manipulate uncertainty in data, models, predictions and decisions. We are concerned with the problem of learning probabilistic models of dynamical systems from measured data.…
Accurate estimation of the dynamic states of a synchronous machine (e.g., rotor s angle and speed) is essential in monitoring and controlling transient stability of a power system. It is well known that the covariance matrixes of process…
This paper studies the distributed state estimation problem for a class of discrete-time stochastic systems with nonlinear uncertain dynamics over time-varying topologies of sensor networks. An extended state vector consisting of the…
This paper proposes a semidefinite programming based method for estimating moments of a stochastic hybrid system (SHS). For polynomial SHSs -- which consist of polynomial continuous vector fields, reset maps, and transition intensities --…
A novel sequential change detection problem is proposed, in which the goal is to not only detect but also accelerate the change. Specifically, it is assumed that the sequentially collected observations are responses to treatments selected…
This paper studies the optimal control problem for discrete-time nonlinear systems and an approximate dynamic programming-based Model Predictive Control (MPC) scheme is proposed for minimizing a quadratic performance measure. In the…
This paper focuses on developing a method to obtain an uncertain linear fractional transformation (LFT) system that adequately captures the dynamics of a nonlinear time-invariant system over some desired envelope. First, the nonlinear…
In this paper, we propose a filtering algorithm for simultaneously estimating the mode, input and state of hidden mode switched linear stochastic systems with unknown inputs. Using a multiple-model approach with a bank of linear input and…
The short-term forecasting of real-time locational marginal price (LMP) and network congestion is considered from a system operator perspective. A new probabilistic forecasting technique is proposed based on a multiparametric programming…
Most reinforcement learning methods are based upon the key assumption that the transition dynamics and reward functions are fixed, that is, the underlying Markov decision process is stationary. However, in many real-world applications, this…
Significant efforts have gone into the development of statistical models for analyzing data in the form of networks, such as social networks. Most existing work has focused on modeling static networks, which represent either a single time…
We study numerical methods for dissipative particle dynamics (DPD), which is a system of stochastic differential equations and a popular stochastic momentum-conserving thermostat for simulating complex hydrodynamic behavior at mesoscales.…
Dynamic line rating (DLR) is a promising solution to increase the utilization of transmission lines by adjusting ratings based on real-time weather conditions. Accurate DLR forecast at the scheduling stage is thus necessary for system…
We propose a new extension of Kalman filtering for continuous-discrete systems with nonlinear state-space models that we name as the level set Kalman filter (LSKF). The LSKF assumes the probability distribution can be approximated as a…
The expected decrease in system inertia and frequency stability motivates the development and maintenance of dynamic system models by Transmission System Operators. However, some dynamic model parameters can be unavailable due to market…
In this paper, we propose an adaptive data-driven min-max model predictive control (MPC) scheme for discrete-time linear time-varying (LTV) systems. We assume that prior knowledge of the system dynamics and bounds on the variations are…