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Modeled along the truncated approach in Panigrahi (2016), selection-adjusted inference in a Bayesian regime is based on a selective posterior. Such a posterior is determined together by a generative model imposed on data and the selection…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-12 Snigdha Panigrahi , Jonathan Taylor

We develop a continuous-time entropy-regularized reinforcement learning framework under model uncertainty. By applying Sion's minimax theorem, we transform the intractable robust control problem into an equivalent standard…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-11 Jiaxuan Hou , Lifeng Wei

Learning meaningful representations that maintain the content necessary for a particular task while filtering away detrimental variations is a problem of great interest in machine learning. In this paper, we tackle the problem of learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-01-30 Qizhe Xie , Zihang Dai , Yulun Du , Eduard Hovy , Graham Neubig

We develop a general theory to optimize the frequentist regret for sequential learning problems, where efficient bandit and reinforcement learning algorithms can be derived from unified Bayesian principles. We propose a novel optimization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-12 Yunbei Xu , Assaf Zeevi

Informed and robust decision making in the face of uncertainty is critical for robots that perform physical tasks alongside people. We formulate this as Bayesian Reinforcement Learning over latent Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). While…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-02-11 Gilwoo Lee , Brian Hou , Sanjiban Choudhury , Siddhartha S. Srinivasa

Robust Markov Decision Processes (RMDPs) intend to ensure robustness with respect to changing or adversarial system behavior. In this framework, transitions are modeled as arbitrary elements of a known and properly structured uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-25 Esther Derman , Daniel Mankowitz , Timothy Mann , Shie Mannor

Prediction sets can wrap around any ML model to cover unknown test outcomes with a guaranteed probability. Yet, it remains unclear how to use them optimally for downstream decision-making. Here, we propose a decision-theoretic framework…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-10 Tao Wang , Edgar Dobriban

We address the fundamental problem of selection under uncertainty by modeling it from the perspective of Bayesian persuasion. In our model, a decision maker with imperfect information always selects the option with the highest expected…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-10-16 Siddhartha Banerjee , Kamesh Munagala , Yiheng Shen , Kangning Wang

Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL) is a method that merges principles from Bayesian statistics and reinforcement learning to make optimal decisions in uncertain environments. As a model-based RL method, it has two key components: (1)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-03 Shreya Sinha Roy , Richard G. Everitt , Christian P. Robert , Ritabrata Dutta

Adapting an agent's behaviour to new environments has been one of the primary focus areas of physics based reinforcement learning. Although recent approaches such as universal policy networks partially address this issue by enabling the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-15 Buddhika Laknath Semage , Thommen George Karimpanal , Santu Rana , Svetha Venkatesh

The computational costs of inference and planning have confined Bayesian model-based reinforcement learning to one of two dismal fates: powerful Bayes-adaptive planning but only for simplistic models, or powerful, Bayesian non-parametric…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-02-11 Arthur Guez , David Silver , Peter Dayan

Bayesian methods have proven themselves to be successful across a wide range of scientific problems and have many well-documented advantages over competing methods. However, these methods run into difficulties for two major and prevalent…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-29 John R. Lewis , Steven N. MacEachern , Yoonkyung Lee

Mislabeled, duplicated, or biased data in real-world scenarios can lead to prolonged training and even hinder model convergence. Traditional solutions prioritizing easy or hard samples lack the flexibility to handle such a variety…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-08 Zhijie Deng , Peng Cui , Jun Zhu

We study optimal estimation when the likelihood may be misspecified. Building on tools from the theory of decision-making under uncertainty, we analyze a class of axiomatically grounded optimality criteria which nests several existing…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-28 Isaiah Andrews , Ricky Li , Yucheng Shang

Bayesian approaches provide a principled solution to the exploration-exploitation trade-off in Reinforcement Learning. Typical approaches, however, either assume a fully observable environment or scale poorly. This work introduces the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-11-15 Sammie Katt , Frans Oliehoek , Christopher Amato

We study online Bayesian persuasion problems in which an informed sender repeatedly faces a receiver with the goal of influencing their behavior through the provision of payoff-relevant information. Previous works assume that the sender has…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Francesco Bacchiocchi , Matteo Bollini , Matteo Castiglioni , Alberto Marchesi , Nicola Gatti

Bayesian persuasion, a central model in information design, studies how a sender, who privately observes a state drawn from a prior distribution, strategically sends a signal to influence a receiver's action. A key assumption is that both…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-05-23 Jingwu Tang , Jiahao Zhang , Fei Fang , Zhiwei Steven Wu

The practical implementation of Bayesian inference requires numerical approximation when closed-form expressions are not available. What types of accuracy (convergence) of the numerical approximations guarantee robustness and what types do…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-04-21 Houman Owhadi , Clint Scovel

In this article, we propose a novel pessimism-based Bayesian learning method for optimal dynamic treatment regimes in the offline setting. When the coverage condition does not hold, which is common for offline data, the existing solutions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-23 Yunzhe Zhou , Zhengling Qi , Chengchun Shi , Lexin Li

Robustness is important for sequential decision making in a stochastic dynamic environment with uncertain probabilistic parameters. We address the problem of using robust MDPs (RMDPs) to compute policies with provable worst-case guarantees…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-16 Reazul Hasan Russel , Marek Petrik