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Transfers in professional football (soccer) are risky investments because of the large transfer fees and high risks involved. Although data-driven models can be used to improve transfer decisions, existing models focus on describing…

Applications · Statistics 2025-09-29 Koen W. van Arem , Floris Goes-Smit , Jakob Söhl

Football is a very result-driven industry, with goals being rarer than in most sports, so having further parameters to judge the performance of teams and individuals is key. Expected Goals (xG) allow further insight than just a scoreline.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-04 James H. Hewitt , Oktay Karakuş

Traditional approaches to measuring visual exploratory behavior in soccer rely on counting visual exploratory actions (VEAs) based on rapid head movements exceeding 125{\deg}/s, but this method suffer from player position bias (i.e., a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Joris Bekkers

As 3-point shooting in the NBA continues to increase, the importance of perimeter defense has never been greater. Perimeter defenders are often evaluated by their ability to tightly contest shots, but how exactly does contesting a jump shot…

Applications · Statistics 2019-05-03 Luke Bornn , Daniel Daly-Grafstein

Football (soccer) is a sport that is characterised by complex game play, where players perform a variety of actions, such as passes, shots, tackles, fouls, in order to score goals, and ultimately win matches. Accurately forecasting the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Michael Horton , Patrick Lucey

This paper introduces the first Expected Possession Value (EPV) benchmark and a new and improved EPV model for football. Through the introduction of the OJN-Pass-EPV benchmark, we present a novel method to quantitatively assess the quality…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-02-05 Thijs Overmeer , Tim Janssen , Wim P. M. Nuijten

Soccer video understanding has motivated the creation of datasets for tasks such as temporal action localization, spatiotemporal action detection (STAD), or multiobject tracking (MOT). The annotation of structured sequences of events (who…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-21 Jeremie Ochin , Raphael Chekroun , Bogdan Stanciulescu , Sotiris Manitsaris

We introduce a formal notion of defendability against backdoors using a game between an attacker and a defender. In this game, the attacker modifies a function to behave differently on a particular input known as the "trigger", while…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Paul Christiano , Jacob Hilton , Victor Lecomte , Mark Xu

In this paper we propose a system capable of tracking multiple soccer players in different types of video quality. The main goal, in contrast to most state-of-art soccer player tracking systems, is the ability of execute effectively…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-05-25 Eloi Martins , José Henrique Brito

Competitive balance in a football league is extremely important from the perspective of economic growth of the industry. Many researchers have earlier proposed different measures of competitive balance, which are primarily adapted from the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-02-19 Soudeep Deb

This paper studies a target-defense game played between a slow defender and a fast attacker. The attacker wins the game if it reaches the target while avoiding the defender's capture disk. The defender wins the game by preventing the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-03-19 Goutam Das , Michael Dorothy , Zachary I. Bell , Daigo Shishika

By treating combinatorial games as dynamical systems, we are able to address a longstanding open question in combinatorial game theory, namely, how the introduction of a "pass" move into a game affects its behavior. We consider two well…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2012-04-17 Rebecca E. Morrison , Eric J. Friedman , Adam S. Landsberg

Intelligent behaviour in the physical world exhibits structure at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Although movements are ultimately executed at the level of instantaneous muscle tensions or joint torques, they must be selected to…

Analyzing defenses in team sports is generally challenging because of the limited event data. Researchers have previously proposed methods to evaluate football team defense by predicting the events of ball gain and being attacked using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-02 Rikuhei Umemoto , Kazushi Tsutsui , Keisuke Fujii

Using high-resolution player tracking data made available by the National Football League (NFL) for their 2019 Big Data Bowl competition, we introduce the Expected Hypothetical Completion Probability (EHCP), a objective framework for…

Applications · Statistics 2019-10-29 Sameer K. Deshpande , Katherine Evans

In this work, we extended a stochastic model for football leagues based on the team's potential [R. da Silva et al. Comput. Phys. Commun. \textbf{184} 661--670 (2013)] for making predictions instead of only performing a successful…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-06-08 Eduardo V. Stock , Roberto da Silva , Henrique A. Fernandes

In recent years, data-driven approaches have become a popular tool in a variety of sports to gain an advantage by, e.g., analysing potential strategies of opponents. Whereas the availability of play-by-play or player tracking data in sports…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-25 Marius Ötting

A valuation for a player in a game in extensive form is an assignment of numeric values to the players moves. The valuation reflects the desirability moves. We assume a myopic player, who chooses a move with the highest valuation.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Philippe Jehiel , Dov Samet

The paper presents a plus-minus rating for use in association football (soccer). We first describe the standard plus-minus methodology as used in basketball and ice-hockey and then adapt it for use in soccer. The usual goal-differential…

Applications · Statistics 2017-06-16 Tarak Kharrat , Javier López Peña , Ian McHale

In this study, the stochastic properties of player and team ball possession times in professional football matches are examined. Data analysis shows that player possession time follows a gamma distribution and the player count of a team…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-01-19 Ken Yamamoto , Seiya Uezu , Keiichiro Kagawa , Yoshihiro Yamazaki , Takuma Narizuka