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Tree-based models are among the most efficient machine learning techniques for data mining nowadays due to their accuracy, interpretability, and simplicity. The recent orthogonal needs for more data and privacy protection call for…
Detailed information about individual claims are completely ignored when insurance claims data are aggregated and structured in development triangles for loss reserving. In the hope of extracting predictive power from the individual claims…
A common approach to the claims reserving problem is based on generalized linear models (GLM). Within this framework, the claims in different origin and development years are assumed to be independent variables. If this assumption is…
Scaling laws predict the loss of a target machine learning model by extrapolating from easier-to-train models with fewer parameters or smaller training sets. This provides an efficient way for practitioners and researchers alike to compare…
Tree-based machine learning models such as random forests, decision trees, and gradient boosted trees are the most popular non-linear predictive models used in practice today, yet comparatively little attention has been paid to explaining…
Probabilistic search algorithms, such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), have proven very effective in solving sequential decision-making tasks under uncertainty. However, interpreting asymmetric search trees that incorporate bandit-based…
For the assessment of the financial soundness of a pension fund, it is necessary to take into account mortality forecasting so that longevity risk is consistently incorporated into future cash flows. In this article, we employ machine…
Statistical Machine Learning (SML) refers to a body of algorithms and methods by which computers are allowed to discover important features of input data sets which are often very large in size. The very task of feature discovery from data…
There is a growing desire in the field of reinforcement learning (and machine learning in general) to move from black-box models toward more "interpretable AI." We improve interpretability of reinforcement learning by increasing the utility…
Large Language Models (LLMs) harness extensive data from the Internet, storing a broad spectrum of prior knowledge. While LLMs have proven beneficial as decision-making aids, their reliability is hampered by limitations in reasoning,…
Machine Learning (ML) based algorithms have found significant impact in many fields of engineering and sciences, where datasets are available from experiments and high fidelity numerical simulations. Those datasets are generally utilized in…
Predicting the price of used vehicles is a more interesting and needed problem by many users. Vehicle price prediction can be a challenging task due to the high number of attributes that should be considered for accurate prediction. The…
The use of learning-based methods for vehicle behavior prediction is a promising research topic. However, many publicly available data sets suffer from class distribution skews which limits learning performance if not addressed. This paper…
Tree ensembles are non-parametric methods widely recognized for their accuracy and ability to capture complex interactions. While these models excel at prediction, they are difficult to interpret and may fail to uncover useful relationships…
Machine learning (ML) methods are being increasingly used across various domains of medicine research. However, despite advancements in the use of ML in medicine, clear and definitive guidelines for determining sample sizes in medical ML…
The AutoML task consists of selecting the proper algorithm in a machine learning portfolio, and its hyperparameter values, in order to deliver the best performance on the dataset at hand. Mosaic, a Monte-Carlo tree search (MCTS) based…
Many machine learning (ML) approaches are widely used to generate bioclimatic models for prediction of geographic range of organism as a function of climate. Applications such as prediction of range shift in organism, range of invasive…
We propose a novel multi-dimensional integration algorithm using a machine learning (ML) technique. After training a ML regression model to mimic a target integrand, the regression model is used to evaluate an approximation of the integral.…
Predictions of fatalities from violent conflict on the PRIO-GRID-month (pgm) level are characterized by high levels of uncertainty, limiting their usefulness in practical applications. We discuss the two main sources of uncertainty for this…
When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…