Related papers: An Open-Source, Physics-Based, Tropical Cyclone Do…
Earth's modern climate is characterized by wet, rainy deep tropics, however paleoclimate and planetary science have revealed a wide range of hydrological cycle regimes connected to different external parameters. Here we investigate how…
Recent research has suggested that the overall dependence of convection near coasts on large-scale atmospheric conditions is weaker than over the open ocean or inland areas. This is due to the fact that in coastal regions convection is…
As part of a project to develop more accurate estimates of the risks due to tropical cyclones, we describe a non-parametric method for the statistical simulation of the location of tropical cyclone genesis. The method avoids the use of…
Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the primary tool to simulate climate evolution and assess the impacts of climate change. However, they often operate at a coarse spatial resolution that limits their accuracy in reproducing local-scale…
Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasting remains challenging as current numerical and AI-based weather models fail to satisfactorily represent extreme TC structure and intensity. Although intensity time-series forecasting has achieved…
Modeling the risk of extreme weather events in a changing climate is essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Although the available low-resolution climate models capture different scenarios, accurate risk…
We show a parallelism between the expansion and compression of the atmosphere in the secondary cycle of a tropical cyclone with the fast expansion and compression of wet air in a bottle. We present a simple model in order to understand how…
The prediction of the intensity, location and time of the landfall of a tropical cyclone well advance in time and with high accuracy can reduce human and material loss immensely. In this article, we develop a Long Short-Term memory based…
The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject…
Local climate information is crucial for impact assessment and decision-making, yet coarse global climate simulations cannot capture small-scale phenomena. Current statistical downscaling methods infer these phenomena as temporally…
As our planet is entering into the "global boiling" era, understanding regional climate change becomes imperative. Effective downscaling methods that provide localized insights are crucial for this target. Traditional approaches, including…
The fundamental interaction between tropical cyclones was investigated through a series of water tank experiements by Fujiwhara [20, 21, 22]. However, a complete understanding of tropical cyclones remains an open research challenge although…
Physics-based climate projections using general circulation models are essential for assessing future risks, but their coarse resolution limits regional decision-making. Statistical downscaling can efficiently add detail, yet many methods…
Tropical cyclones are known to expand to an equilibrium size on the $f$-plane, but the expansion process is not understood. In this study, an analytical model for tropical cyclone size expansion on the $f$-plane is proposed. Conceptually,…
Kossin et al. (2020) successfully test (over the last four decades) the prediction of climate-change models that conditional tropical cyclone intensity (the frequency of major [category 3-5] cyclones divided by the frequency of all…
Tropical cyclones present a serious threat to many coastal communities around the world. Many numerical weather prediction models provide deterministic forecasts with limited measures of their forecast uncertainty. Standard postprocessing…
Earth System Models (ESMs) are the state of the art for projecting the effects of climate change. However, longstanding uncertainties in their ability to simulate regional and local precipitation extremes and related processes inhibit…
Ecology studies biodiversity in its variety and complexity. It describes how species distribute and perform in response to environmental changes. Ecological processes and structures are highly complex and adaptive. In order to quantify…
Regional high-resolution climate projections are crucial for many applications, such as agriculture, hydrology, and natural hazard risk assessment. Dynamical downscaling, the state-of-the-art method to produce localized future climate…
Downscaling, or super-resolution, provides decision-makers with detailed, high-resolution information about the potential risks and impacts of climate change, based on climate model output. Machine learning algorithms are proving themselves…