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Related papers: An Open-Source, Physics-Based, Tropical Cyclone Do…

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Earth's modern climate is characterized by wet, rainy deep tropics, however paleoclimate and planetary science have revealed a wide range of hydrological cycle regimes connected to different external parameters. Here we investigate how…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-04-15 Bowen Fan , Zhihong Tan , Tiffany A. Shaw , Edwin S. Kite

Recent research has suggested that the overall dependence of convection near coasts on large-scale atmospheric conditions is weaker than over the open ocean or inland areas. This is due to the fact that in coastal regions convection is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-11-07 Martin Bergemann , Boualem Khouider , Christian Jakob

As part of a project to develop more accurate estimates of the risks due to tropical cyclones, we describe a non-parametric method for the statistical simulation of the location of tropical cyclone genesis. The method avoids the use of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Tim Hall , Stephen Jewson

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the primary tool to simulate climate evolution and assess the impacts of climate change. However, they often operate at a coarse spatial resolution that limits their accuracy in reproducing local-scale…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-04 Jose González-Abad , Álex Hernández-García , Paula Harder , David Rolnick , José Manuel Gutiérrez

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasting remains challenging as current numerical and AI-based weather models fail to satisfactorily represent extreme TC structure and intensity. Although intensity time-series forecasting has achieved…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Jun Liu , Xiaohui Zhong , Kai Zheng , Jiarui Li , Yifei Li , Tao Zhou , Wenxu Qian , Shun Dai , Ruian Tie , Yangyang Zhao , Hao Li

Modeling the risk of extreme weather events in a changing climate is essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Although the available low-resolution climate models capture different scenarios, accurate risk…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-12-06 Anamitra Saha , Sai Ravela

We show a parallelism between the expansion and compression of the atmosphere in the secondary cycle of a tropical cyclone with the fast expansion and compression of wet air in a bottle. We present a simple model in order to understand how…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2013-11-19 Alejandro Romanelli , Italo Bove , Juan Rodríguez

The prediction of the intensity, location and time of the landfall of a tropical cyclone well advance in time and with high accuracy can reduce human and material loss immensely. In this article, we develop a Long Short-Term memory based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-31 Sandeep Kumar , Koushik Biswas , Ashish Kumar Pandey

The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-08-05 Michael Ghil , Valerio Lucarini

Local climate information is crucial for impact assessment and decision-making, yet coarse global climate simulations cannot capture small-scale phenomena. Current statistical downscaling methods infer these phenomena as temporally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Jonathan Schmidt , Luca Schmidt , Felix Strnad , Nicole Ludwig , Philipp Hennig

As our planet is entering into the "global boiling" era, understanding regional climate change becomes imperative. Effective downscaling methods that provide localized insights are crucial for this target. Traditional approaches, including…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-04-08 Fenghua Ling , Zeyu Lu , Jing-Jia Luo , Lei Bai , Swadhin K. Behera , Dachao Jin , Baoxiang Pan , Huidong Jiang , Toshio Yamagata

The fundamental interaction between tropical cyclones was investigated through a series of water tank experiements by Fujiwhara [20, 21, 22]. However, a complete understanding of tropical cyclones remains an open research challenge although…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2016-08-24 Raymond P Walsh , Jahrul M Alam

Physics-based climate projections using general circulation models are essential for assessing future risks, but their coarse resolution limits regional decision-making. Statistical downscaling can efficiently add detail, yet many methods…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-13 Takuro Kutsuna , Noriko N. Ishizaki , Norihiro Oyama , Hiroaki Yoshida

Tropical cyclones are known to expand to an equilibrium size on the $f$-plane, but the expansion process is not understood. In this study, an analytical model for tropical cyclone size expansion on the $f$-plane is proposed. Conceptually,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-10-23 Danyang Wang , Dan Chavas

Kossin et al. (2020) successfully test (over the last four decades) the prediction of climate-change models that conditional tropical cyclone intensity (the frequency of major [category 3-5] cyclones divided by the frequency of all…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-05-10 Ivo Welch

Tropical cyclones present a serious threat to many coastal communities around the world. Many numerical weather prediction models provide deterministic forecasts with limited measures of their forecast uncertainty. Standard postprocessing…

Applications · Statistics 2022-11-01 Stephen A. Walsh , Marco A. R. Ferreira , Dave Higdon , Stephanie Zick

Earth System Models (ESMs) are the state of the art for projecting the effects of climate change. However, longstanding uncertainties in their ability to simulate regional and local precipitation extremes and related processes inhibit…

Applications · Statistics 2017-07-20 Evan Kodra , Singdhansu Chatterjee , Stone Chen , Auroop R. Ganguly

Ecology studies biodiversity in its variety and complexity. It describes how species distribute and perform in response to environmental changes. Ecological processes and structures are highly complex and adaptive. In order to quantify…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-10-09 Cang Hui

Regional high-resolution climate projections are crucial for many applications, such as agriculture, hydrology, and natural hazard risk assessment. Dynamical downscaling, the state-of-the-art method to produce localized future climate…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-10-03 Ignacio Lopez-Gomez , Zhong Yi Wan , Leonardo Zepeda-Núñez , Tapio Schneider , John Anderson , Fei Sha

Downscaling, or super-resolution, provides decision-makers with detailed, high-resolution information about the potential risks and impacts of climate change, based on climate model output. Machine learning algorithms are proving themselves…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-04-30 Robbie A. Watt , Laura A. Mansfield