Related papers: Deep Learning Enhanced Realized GARCH
This paper proposes a semiparametric stochastic volatility (SV) model that relaxes the restrictive Gaussian assumption in both the return and volatility error terms, allowing them to follow flexible, nonparametric distributions with…
This paper presents a deep learning framework based on Long Short-term Memory Network(LSTM) that predicts price movement of cryptocurrencies from trade-by-trade data. The main focus of this study is on predicting short-term price changes in…
This paper proposes a hybrid framework combining LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) networks with LightGBM and CatBoost for stock price prediction. The framework processes time-series financial data and evaluates performance using seven models:…
The aim of this paper is to describe a new an integrated methodology for project control under uncertainty. This proposal is based on Earned Value Methodology and risk analysis and presents several refinements to previous methodologies.…
Time series forecasting represents a significant and challenging task across various fields. Recently, methods based on mode decomposition have dominated the forecasting of complex time series because of the advantages of capturing local…
We propose a new approach to inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) based on the deep Gaussian process (deep GP) model, which is capable of learning complicated reward structures with few demonstrations. Our model stacks multiple latent GP…
We propose a parsimonious class of arbitrage-free, yields-only dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) with unspanned latent risks. To enable sequential estimation and forecasting, we develop a Sequential Monte Carlo framework that combines…
The Heston stochastic volatility model is a widely used tool in financial mathematics for pricing European options. However, its calibration remains computationally intensive and sensitive to local minima due to the model's nonlinear…
We present the Incremental Generative Monte Carlo (IGMC) method, designed to measure uncertainty in deep neural networks using deep generative approaches. IGMC iteratively trains generative models, adding their output to the dataset, to…
In recent decades, financial quantification has emerged and matured rapidly. For financial institutions such as funds, investment institutions are increasingly dissatisfied with the situation of passively constructing investment portfolios…
Midterm stock price prediction is crucial for value investments in the stock market. However, most deep learning models are essentially short-term and applying them to midterm predictions encounters large cumulative errors because they…
A Bayesian estimation of a GARCH model is performed for US Dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with a proposal density given by the adaptive construction scheme. In the adaptive construction scheme the…
Trend-following strategies underpin many systematic trading approaches yet struggle under nonstationary and nonlinear market regimes. We propose an LSTM-based framework to forecast next-day trend differences ($\Delta_t$) for the top 30 S\&P…
Analytics of financial data is inherently a Big Data paradigm, as such data are collected over many assets, asset classes, countries, and time periods. This represents a challenge for modern machine learning models, as the number of model…
The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is widely used for analyzing correlated data, particularly in large-scale biomedical and social science applications. Scalable Bayesian inference for GLMMs is challenging because the marginal…
This study presents a deep reinforcement learning approach for global hedging of long-term financial derivatives. A similar setup as in Coleman et al. (2007) is considered with the risk management of lookback options embedded in guarantees…
This paper introduces a unified factor overnight GARCH-It\^o model for large volatility matrix estimation and prediction. To account for whole-day market dynamics, the proposed model has two different instantaneous factor volatility…
This paper presents a novel dynamic network autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model based on spatiotemporal ARCH models to forecast volatility in the US stock market. To improve the forecasting accuracy, the model…
Accurate forecasting of volatility and return quantiles is essential for evaluating financial tail risks such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall. This study proposes an extension of the traditional stochastic volatility model, termed…
Accurate volatility forecasting is essential in banking, investment, and risk management, because expectations about future market movements directly influence current decisions. This study proposes a hybrid modelling framework that…