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Causal discovery algorithms aim at untangling complex causal relationships from data. Here, we study causal discovery and inference methods based on staged tree models, which can represent complex and asymmetric causal relationships between…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-02 Manuele Leonelli , Gherardo Varando

Causal opacity denotes the difficulty in understanding the "hidden" causal structure underlying the decisions of deep neural network (DNN) models. This leads to the inability to rely on and verify state-of-the-art DNN-based systems,…

Granger causality has been employed to investigate causality relations between components of stationary multiple time series. We generalize this concept by developing statistical inference for local Granger causality for multivariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-12 Yan Liu , Masanobu Taniguchi , Hernando Ombao

Learning causal relationships between variables is a well-studied problem in statistics, with many important applications in science. However, modeling real-world systems remain challenging, as most existing algorithms assume that the…

To gain insight into complex systems it is a key challenge to infer nonlinear causal directional relations from observational time-series data. Specifically, estimating causal relationships between interacting components in large systems…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-04 Axel Wismüller , Adora M. DSouza , Anas Z. Abidin

Real world systems evolve in continuous-time according to their underlying causal relationships, yet their dynamics are often unknown. Existing approaches to learning such dynamics typically either discretize time -- leading to poor…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Nicholas Tagliapietra , Katharina Ensinger , Christoph Zimmer , Osman Mian

Hawkes processes are a special class of temporal point processes which exhibit a natural notion of causality, as occurrence of events in the past may increase the probability of events in the future. Discovery of the underlying influence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Amirkasra Jalaldoust , Katerina Hlavackova-Schindler , Claudia Plant

Biomarker discovery from high-throughput transcriptomic data is crucial for advancing precision medicine. However, existing methods often neglect gene-gene regulatory relationships and lack stability across datasets, leading to conflation…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-11-18 Chaowang Lan , Jingxin Wu , Yulong Yuan , Chuxun Liu , Huangyi Kang , Caihua Liu

Inferring cause-effect relationships from observational data has gained significant attention in recent years, but most methods are limited to scalar random variables. In many important domains, including neuroscience, psychology, social…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-06 Konstantin Göbler , Tobias Windisch , Mathias Drton

Nonlinear causal discovery from observational data imposes strict identifiability assumptions on the formulation of structural equations utilized in the data generating process. The evaluation of structure learning methods under assumption…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-17 Georg Velev , Stefan Lessmann

This paper presents Gem, a model-agnostic approach for providing interpretable explanations for any GNNs on various graph learning tasks. Specifically, we formulate the problem of providing explanations for the decisions of GNNs as a causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-08 Wanyu Lin , Hao Lan , Baochun Li

This article presents a novel method for causal discovery with generalized structural equation models suited for analyzing diverse types of outcomes, including discrete, continuous, and mixed data. Causal discovery often faces challenges…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-26 Minjie Wang , Xiaotong Shen , Wei Pan

In this study, we present a novel constraint-based algorithm for causal structure learning specifically designed for nonlinear autoregressive time series. Our algorithm significantly reduces computational complexity compared to existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-11 Mohammad Fesanghary , Achintya Gopal

We study the problem of graph structure identification, i.e., of recovering the graph of dependencies among time series. We model these time series data as components of the state of linear stochastic networked dynamical systems. We assume…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-29 Sérgio Machado , Anirudh Sridhar , Paulo Gil , Jorge Henriques , José M. F. Moura , Augusto Santos

Important information on the structure of complex systems, consisting of more than one component, can be obtained by measuring to which extent the individual components exchange information among each other. Such knowledge is needed to…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-11-13 Daniele Marinazzo , Mario Pellicoro , Sebastiano Stramaglia

The study of cause-and-effect is of the utmost importance in many branches of science, but also for many practical applications of intelligent systems. In particular, identifying causal relationships in situations that include hidden…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-14 Luca Castri , Sariah Mghames , Marc Hanheide , Nicola Bellotto

Causal discovery from time series is critical for many real-world applications, such as tracing the root causes of anomalies. Existing approaches typically rely on dataset-specific optimization, making it difficult to transfer their causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Biao Ouyang , Tengxue Zhang , Zhihao Zhuang , Yang Shu , Chenjuan Guo , Bin Yang

Granger causality (GC), a popular statistical method for the inference of directional influences between time series measured from a complex network, is sensitive to high-order (non-pairwise) interactions which fundamentally shape the…

We consider the Granger causal structure learning problem from time series data. Granger causal algorithms predict a 'Granger causal effect' between two variables by testing if prediction error of one decreases significantly in the absence…

Causal graph discovery is a significant problem with applications across various disciplines. However, with observational data alone, the underlying causal graph can only be recovered up to its Markov equivalence class, and further…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Davin Choo , Kirankumar Shiragur , Caroline Uhler
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