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Proper confidence calibration of deep neural networks is essential for reliable predictions in safety-critical tasks. Miscalibration can lead to model over-confidence and/or under-confidence; i.e., the model's confidence in its prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Shuang Ao , Stefan Rueger , Advaith Siddharthan

Calibration is crucial in deep learning applications, especially in fields like healthcare and autonomous driving, where accurate confidence estimates are vital for decision-making. However, deep neural networks often suffer from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-17 Linwei Tao , Haolan Guo , Minjing Dong , Chang Xu

Deep neural networks (DNN) are prone to miscalibrated predictions, often exhibiting a mismatch between the predicted output and the associated confidence scores. Contemporary model calibration techniques mitigate the problem of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-21 Ramya Hebbalaguppe , Rishabh Patra , Tirtharaj Dash , Gautam Shroff , Lovekesh Vig

Neural networks have proven successful at learning from complex data distributions by acting as universal function approximators. However, they are often overconfident in their predictions, which leads to inaccurate and miscalibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Jeffrey Willette , Juho Lee , Sung Ju Hwang

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-04 Chuan Guo , Geoff Pleiss , Yu Sun , Kilian Q. Weinberger

Predictive Coding Networks (PCNs) aim to learn a generative model of the world. Given observations, this generative model can then be inverted to infer the causes of those observations. However, when training PCNs, a noticeable pathology is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-09-02 Paul F Kinghorn , Beren Millidge , Christopher L Buckley

Deep neural networks have been shown to be highly miscalibrated. often they tend to be overconfident in their predictions. It poses a significant challenge for safety-critical systems to utilise deep neural networks (DNNs), reliably. Many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-05 Aditya Singh , Alessandro Bay , Biswa Sengupta , Andrea Mirabile

Reliable confidence estimation for the predictions is important in many safety-critical applications. However, modern deep neural networks are often overconfident for their incorrect predictions. Recently, many calibration methods have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-07 Fei Zhu , Zhen Cheng , Xu-Yao Zhang , Cheng-Lin Liu

Miscalibration - a mismatch between a model's confidence and its correctness - of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) makes their predictions hard to rely on. Ideally, we want networks to be accurate, calibrated and confident. We show that, as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-27 Jishnu Mukhoti , Viveka Kulharia , Amartya Sanyal , Stuart Golodetz , Philip H. S. Torr , Puneet K. Dokania

Neural networks solving real-world problems are often required not only to make accurate predictions but also to provide a confidence level in the forecast. The calibration of a model indicates how close the estimated confidence is to the…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2023-03-21 Ruslan Vasilev , Alexander D'yakonov

Modern convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are known to be overconfident in terms of their calibration on unseen input data. That is to say, they are more confident than they are accurate. This is undesirable if the probabilities predicted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-03 Guoxuan Xia , Sangwon Ha , Tiago Azevedo , Partha Maji

Despite the power of deep neural networks for a wide range of tasks, an overconfident prediction issue has limited their practical use in many safety-critical applications. Many recent works have been proposed to mitigate this issue, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-14 Jooyoung Moon , Jihyo Kim , Younghak Shin , Sangheum Hwang

Accurate probabilistic predictions are essential for optimal decision making. While neural network miscalibration has been studied primarily in classification, we investigate this in the less-explored domain of regression. We conduct the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-08 Victor Dheur , Souhaib Ben Taieb

Deep clustering has exhibited remarkable performance; however, the over confidence problem, i.e., the estimated confidence for a sample belonging to a particular cluster greatly exceeds its actual prediction accuracy, has been over looked…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-03 Yuheng Jia , Jianhong Cheng , Hui Liu , Junhui Hou

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have made great strides in pushing the state-of-the-art in several challenging domains. Recent studies reveal that they are prone to making overconfident predictions. This greatly reduces the overall trust in…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-09-07 Vinith Kugathasan , Muhammad Haris Khan

Recent works have shown that deep neural networks can achieve super-human performance in a wide range of image classification tasks in the medical imaging domain. However, these works have primarily focused on classification accuracy,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-09-10 Gongbo Liang , Yu Zhang , Xiaoqin Wang , Nathan Jacobs

Backpropagation (BP) is the standard algorithm for training the deep neural networks that power modern artificial intelligence including large language models. However, BP is energy inefficient and unlikely to be implemented by the brain.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-30 Francesco Innocenti

Uncertainty calibration is crucial for various machine learning applications, yet it remains challenging. Many models exhibit hallucinations - confident yet inaccurate responses - due to miscalibrated confidence. Here, we show that the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-28 Jeonghwan Cheon , Se-Bum Paik

Confidence calibration is central to providing accurate and interpretable uncertainty estimates, especially under safety-critical scenarios. However, we find that existing calibration algorithms often overlook the issue of *proximity bias*,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Miao Xiong , Ailin Deng , Pang Wei Koh , Jiaying Wu , Shen Li , Jianqing Xu , Bryan Hooi

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved significant success across various tasks, but ensuring reliable uncertainty estimates, known as model calibration, is crucial for their safe and effective deployment. Modern DNNs often suffer from…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Linwei Tao , Minjing Dong , Chang Xu
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