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Accurate estimation of predictive uncertainty (model calibration) is essential for the safe application of neural networks. Many instances of miscalibration in modern neural networks have been reported, suggesting a trend that newer, more…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-27 Matthias Minderer , Josip Djolonga , Rob Romijnders , Frances Hubis , Xiaohua Zhai , Neil Houlsby , Dustin Tran , Mario Lucic

Reliable uncertainty calibration is essential for safely deploying deep neural networks in high-stakes applications. Deep neural networks are known to exhibit systematic overconfidence, especially under distribution shifts. Although…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-12 Achim Hekler , Lukas Kuhn , Florian Buettner

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have enabled astounding progress in several vision-based problems. Despite showing high predictive accuracy, recently, several works have revealed that they tend to provide overconfident predictions and thus are…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Muhammad Akhtar Munir , Muhammad Haris Khan , Salman Khan , Fahad Shahbaz Khan

Generating calibrated and sharp neural network predictive distributions for regression problems is essential for optimal decision-making in many real-world applications. To address the miscalibration issue of neural networks, various…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Victor Dheur , Souhaib Ben Taieb

We propose a generic framework to calibrate accuracy and confidence of a prediction in deep neural networks through stochastic inferences. We interpret stochastic regularization using a Bayesian model, and analyze the relation between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-25 Seonguk Seo , Paul Hongsuck Seo , Bohyung Han

Calibrating deep neural models plays an important role in building reliable, robust AI systems in safety-critical applications. Recent work has shown that modern neural networks that possess high predictive capability are poorly calibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Cheng Wang

Deep neural networks have demonstrated remarkable performance across numerous learning tasks but often suffer from miscalibration, resulting in unreliable probability outputs. This has inspired many recent works on mitigating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Wenjian Huang , Guiping Cao , Jiahao Xia , Jingkun Chen , Hao Wang , Jianguo Zhang

Assisted by the availability of data and high performance computing, deep learning techniques have achieved breakthroughs and surpassed human performance empirically in difficult tasks, including object recognition, speech recognition, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-23 Shaeke Salman , Xiuwen Liu

With model trustworthiness being crucial for sensitive real-world applications, practitioners are putting more and more focus on improving the uncertainty calibration of deep neural networks. Calibration errors are designed to quantify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Sebastian G. Gruber , Florian Buettner

In recent years, new regularization methods based on (deep) neural networks have shown very promising empirical performance for the numerical solution of ill-posed problems, e.g., in medical imaging and imaging science. Due to the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-06-07 Tim Jahn , Bangti Jin

While significant progress has been made in specifying neural networks capable of representing uncertainty, deep networks still often suffer from overconfidence and misaligned predictive distributions. Existing approaches for measuring this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Spencer Young , Riley Sinema , Cole Edgren , Andrew Hall , Nathan Dong , Porter Jenkins

Overconfidence and underconfidence in machine learning classifiers is measured by calibration: the degree to which the probabilities predicted for each class match the accuracy of the classifier on that prediction. How one measures…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-11 Jeremy Nixon , Mike Dusenberry , Ghassen Jerfel , Timothy Nguyen , Jeremiah Liu , Linchuan Zhang , Dustin Tran

Modern neural networks have found to be miscalibrated in terms of confidence calibration, i.e., their predicted confidence scores do not reflect the observed accuracy or precision. Recent work has introduced methods for post-hoc confidence…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-09-22 Fabian Küppers , Jan Kronenberger , Jonas Schneider , Anselm Haselhoff

Predictive coding (PC) is an influential theory in computational neuroscience, which argues that the cortex forms unsupervised world models by implementing a hierarchical process of prediction error minimization. PC networks (PCNs) are…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2022-08-05 Beren Millidge , Yuhang Song , Tommaso Salvatori , Thomas Lukasiewicz , Rafal Bogacz

In recent years, deep neural networks (DNNs) have shown competitive results in many fields. Despite this success, they often suffer from poor calibration, especially in safety-critical scenarios such as autonomous driving and healthcare,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-13 Jiani Ni , He Zhao , Yibo Yang , Dandan Guo

Calibration can reduce overconfident predictions of deep neural networks, but can calibration also accelerate training? In this paper, we show that it can when used to prioritize some examples for performing subset selection. We study the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-17 Ganesh Tata , Gautham Krishna Gudur , Gopinath Chennupati , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan

Deep neural networks are powerful tools to detect hidden patterns in data and leverage them to make predictions, but they are not designed to understand uncertainty and estimate reliable probabilities. In particular, they tend to be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-10 Bat-Sheva Einbinder , Yaniv Romano , Matteo Sesia , Yanfei Zhou

Deep Neural Networks (DNN) represent the state of the art in many tasks. However, due to their overparameterization, their generalization capabilities are in doubt and still a field under study. Consequently, DNN can overfit and assign…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-19 Juan Maroñas , Daniel Ramos , Roberto Paredes

Modern deep neural networks can produce badly calibrated predictions, especially when train and test distributions are mismatched. Training an ensemble of models and averaging their predictions can help alleviate these issues. We propose a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-09 Asa Cooper Stickland , Iain Murray

The wide adoption of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) in applications where decision-making under uncertainty is fundamental, has brought a great deal of attention to the ability of these models to accurately quantify the uncertainty in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-29 Gia-Lac Tran , Edwin V. Bonilla , John P. Cunningham , Pietro Michiardi , Maurizio Filippone