Related papers: Dynamic Arctic weather variability and connectivit…
Predicting Arctic sea ice extent is a notoriously difficult forecasting problem, even for lead times as short as one month. Motivated by Arctic intraannual variability phenomena such as reemergence of sea surface temperature and sea ice…
How regional heterogeneity in social and cultural processes drive--and respond to--climate dynamics is little studied. Here we present a coupled social-climate model stratified across five world regions and parameterized with geophysical,…
Based on nonlinear prediction and information theory, vertical heterogeneity of predictability and information loss rate was obtained over the Northern Hemisphere. In seasonal to interannual time scales, the predictability is low in lower…
Understanding the interactions between ice sheets and global climate forcings over geological timescales is essential for projecting their future. Previous studies have highlighted the role of ice dynamics and climate interactions in…
We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on a long time-scale by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. This approach is…
The low frequency variability of the extratropical atmosphere involves hemispheric-scale recurring, often persistent, states known as teleconnection patterns or regimes, which can have profound impact on predictability on intra-seasonal and…
As we deal with the effects of climate change and the increase of global atmospheric temperatures, the accurate tracking and prediction of ice layers within polar ice sheets grows in importance. Studying these ice layers reveals climate…
As climate change continues to reshape marginal ice zones in the Arctic, accurate and reliable sea ice data are critical for ensuring maritime safety. This study compares regional ice charts from the Alaska Sea Ice Program with satellite…
We study the seasonal changes in the thickness distribution of Arctic sea ice, $g(h)$, under climate forcing. Our analytical and numerical approach is based on a Fokker-Planck equation for $g(h)$ (Toppaladoddi \& Wettlaufer \emph{Phys. Rev.…
Antarctic sea ice has undergone unprecedented changes in recent years, raising questions about how this key geophysical system is responding to climate change. Decades of slow expansion were replaced by a precipitous decline in 2014-2017, a…
Regional climate change in the $21^{st}$ century will result from the interplay between human-induced changes and internal climate variability. Competing effects from greenhouse gas warming and aerosol cooling have historically caused…
Recent rapid loss of the Arctic sea ice motivates the study of the Arctic sea ice thickness. Global climate model that describes the ice's thickness evolution requires an accurate spatial temperature profile of the Arctic sea ice. However,…
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) describes variations of North Atlantic sea surface temperature with a typical cycle of between 60 and 70 years. AMV strongly impacts local climate over North America and Europe, therefore prediction…
Data-driven machine learning models for weather forecasting have made transformational progress in the last 1-2 years, with state-of-the-art ones now outperforming the best physics-based models for a wide range of skill scores. Given the…
Abrupt and irreversible winter Arctic sea-ice loss may occur under anthropogenic warming due to the collapse of a sea-ice equilibrium at a threshold value of CO$_2$, commonly referred to as a tipping point. Previous work has been unable to…
Teleconnections between the tropical and the extratropical climates are often considered as a potential source of long-term predictability at seasonal to decadal time scales in the extratropics. This claim is taken up in the present work by…
Current climate shift has significant impacts on both quality and quantity of snow precipitation. This directly influences spatial variability of the snowpack as well as cumulative snow height. Contemporary glacier retreat reorganizes…
Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…
As the Arctic is heating up, so are efforts to strengthen connectivity within the region, but also to enhance the connections from remote settlements to the global networks of trade as well as sociality. With global interest in the Arctic…
In this paper, we consider fundamental problems of the dynamics of internal gravity waves. We present analytical and numerical algorithms for calculating the wave fields for a set of values of the parameters, as observed in the ocean. We…