Related papers: Necessary and sufficient conditions for posterior …
We propose a method for estimating the posterior distribution of a standard geostatistical model. After choosing the model formulation and specifying a prior, we use normal mixture densities to approximate the posterior distribution. The…
We study Bayesian discriminative inference given a model family $p(c,\x, \theta)$ that is assumed to contain all our prior information but still known to be incorrect. This falls in between "standard" Bayesian generative modeling and…
In Bayesian analysis, the selection of a prior distribution is typically done by considering each parameter in the model. While this can be convenient, in many scenarios it may be desirable to place a prior on a summary measure of the model…
Bayesian and other likelihood-based methods require specification of a statistical model and may not be fully satisfactory for inference on quantities, such as quantiles, that are not naturally defined as model parameters. In this paper, we…
To get Bayesian neural networks to perform comparably to standard neural networks it is usually necessary to artificially reduce uncertainty using a "tempered" or "cold" posterior. This is extremely concerning: if the prior is accurate,…
Classic Bayesian methods with complex models are frequently infeasible due to an intractable likelihood. Simulation-based inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), calculate posteriors without accessing a likelihood…
Standard Bayesian analyses can be difficult to perform when the full likelihood, and consequently the full posterior distribution, is too complex and difficult to specify or if robustness with respect to data or to model misspecifications…
Finite mixture models are a useful statistical model class for clustering and density approximation. In the Bayesian framework finite mixture models require the specification of suitable priors in addition to the data model. These priors…
Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…
This paper develops a methodology for approximating the posterior first two moments of the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. Partially specified probability models, which are defined only by specifying means and variances, are…
We give two prediction intervals (PI) for Generalized Linear Models that take model selection uncertainty into account. The first is a straightforward extension of asymptotic normality results and the second includes an extra optimization…
Mixture models are commonly used in applications with heterogeneity and overdispersion in the population, as they allow the identification of subpopulations. In the Bayesian framework, this entails the specification of suitable prior…
In application areas where data generation is expensive, Gaussian processes are a preferred supervised learning model due to their high data-efficiency. Particularly in model-based control, Gaussian processes allow the derivation of…
When constructing a Bayesian Machine Learning model, we might be faced with multiple different prior distributions and thus are required to properly consider them in a sensible manner in our model. While this situation is reasonably well…
Gaussian graphical model is one of the powerful tools to analyze conditional independence between two variables for multivariate Gaussian-distributed observations. When the dimension of data is moderate or high, penalized likelihood methods…
We study generalized Bayesian inference under misspecification, i.e. when the model is 'wrong but useful'. Generalized Bayes equips the likelihood with a learning rate $\eta$. We show that for generalized linear models (GLMs),…
We study the behavior of the posterior distribution in high-dimensional Bayesian Gaussian linear regression models having $p\gg n$, with $p$ the number of predictors and $n$ the sample size. Our focus is on obtaining quantitative finite…
Although linear regression models are fundamental tools in statistical science, the estimation results can be sensitive to outliers. While several robust methods have been proposed in frequentist frameworks, statistical inference is not…
Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) are a widely used tool in statistical analysis. The main bottleneck of many computational approaches lies in the inversion of the high dimensional precision matrices associated with the random…
Objective probabilistic forecasts of future climate that include parameter uncertainty can be made by using the Bayesian prediction integral with the prior set to Jeffreys' Prior. The calculations involved in determining the prior can then…