English

Post-model-selection prediction for GLM's

Methodology 2023-05-26 v1

Abstract

We give two prediction intervals (PI) for Generalized Linear Models that take model selection uncertainty into account. The first is a straightforward extension of asymptotic normality results and the second includes an extra optimization that improves nominal coverage for small-to--moderate samples. Both PI's are wider than would be obtained without incorporating model selection uncertyainty. We compare these two PI's with three other PI's. Two are based on bootstrapping procedures and the third is based on a PI from Bayes model averaging. We argue that for general usage either the asymptotic normality or optimized asymptotic normality PI's work best. In an Appendix we extend our results to Generalized Linear Mixed Models.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2305.15579,
  title  = {Post-model-selection prediction for GLM's},
  author = {Dean Dustin and Bertrand Clarke},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2305.15579},
  year   = {2023}
}

Comments

19 pages, 4 tables

R2 v1 2026-06-28T10:45:17.792Z