Related papers: Tail Bounds for Tensor-valued Random Process
Quantile regression is an important tool for estimation of conditional quantiles of a response Y given a vector of covariates X. It can be used to measure the effect of covariates not only in the center of a distribution, but also in the…
The exact expression for the probability density $p_{_N}(x)$ for sums of a finite number $N$ of random independent terms is obtained. It is shown that the very tail of $p_{_N}(x)$ has a Gaussian form if and only if all the random terms are…
The extremal behaviour of a Markov chain is typically characterized by its tail chain. For asymptotically dependent Markov chains existing formulations fail to capture the full evolution of the extreme event when the chain moves out of the…
We study the supremum of some random Dirichlet polynomials and obtain sharp upper and lower bounds for supremum expectation that extend the optimal estimate of Hal\'asz-Queff\'elec and enable to cunstruct random polynomials with unusually…
We propose an analytical approach to the computation of tail probabilities of compound distributions whose individual components have heavy tails. Our approach is based on the contour integration method, and gives rise to a representation…
A random vector $X$ with representation $X=\sum_{j\geq0}A_jZ_j$ is considered. Here, $(Z_j)$ is a sequence of independent and identically distributed random vectors and $(A_j)$ is a sequence of random matrices, `predictable' with respect to…
A family of self-similar and translation-invariant random sup-measures with long-range dependence are investigated. They are shown to arise as the limit of the empirical random sup-measure of a stationary heavy-tailed process, inspired by…
In recent works on the theory of machine learning, it has been observed that heavy tail properties of Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) can be studied in the probabilistic framework of stochastic recursions. In particular,…
In this paper we propose a problem-driven scenario generation approach to the single-period portfolio selection problem which use tail risk measures such as conditional value-at-risk. Tail risk measures are useful for quantifying potential…
We present an algorithm based on posterior sampling (aka Thompson sampling) that achieves near-optimal worst-case regret bounds when the underlying Markov Decision Process (MDP) is communicating with a finite, though unknown, diameter. Our…
In this work, we establish risk bounds for the Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) with both dependent and heavy-tailed data-generating processes. We do so by extending the seminal works of Mendelson [Men15, Men18] on the analysis of ERM with…
We establish new tail estimates for order statistics and for the Euclidean norms of projections of an isotropic log-concave random vector. More generally, we prove tail estimates for the norms of projections of sums of independent…
Heavy-tailed distributions are frequently used to enhance the robustness of regression and classification methods to outliers in output space. Often, however, we are confronted with "outliers" in input space, which are isolated observations…
Chernoff bounds are a powerful application of the Markov inequality to produce strong bounds on the tails of probability distributions. They are often used to bound the tail probabilities of sums of Poisson trials, or in regression to…
We show that classical chaining bounds on the suprema of random processes in terms of entropy numbers can be systematically improved when the underlying set is convex: the entropy numbers need not be computed for the entire set, but only…
Threshold selection plays a key role for various aspects of statistical inference of rare events. Most classical approaches tackling this problem for heavy-tailed distributions crucially depend on tuning parameters or critical values to be…
We explore the limit of stochastic differential equations driven by some random processes satisfying singularly perturbed second order stochastic differential equations. The main tool we employ is the universal limit theorem in rough path…
For a risk vector $V$, whose components are shared among agents by some random mechanism, we obtain asymptotic lower and upper bounds for the individual agents' exposure risk and the aggregated risk in the market. Risk is measured by…
This paper formulates algorithms to upper-bound the maximum Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a state function along trajectories of stochastic processes. The VaR is upper bounded by two methods: minimax tail-bounds (Cantelli/Vysochanskij-Petunin) and…
We consider a class of stationary processes exhibiting both long-range dependence and heavy tails. Separate limit theorems for sums and for extremes have been established recently in literature with novel objects appearing in the limits. In…