Related papers: Evidential Decision Theory via Partial Markov Cate…
Epidemics are inherently stochastic, and stochastic models provide an appropriate way to describe and analyse such phenomena. Given temporal incidence data consisting of, for example, the number of new infections or removals in a given time…
In this paper, we propose a class of efficient, accurate, and general methods for solving state-estimation problems with equality and inequality constraints. The methods are based on recent developments in variable splitting and partially…
Stochastic processes find applications in modelling systems in a variety of disciplines. A large number of stochastic models considered are Markovian in nature. It is often observed that higher order Markov processes can model the data…
An inductive probabilistic classification rule must generally obey the principles of Bayesian predictive inference, such that all observed and unobserved stochastic quantities are jointly modeled and the parameter uncertainty is fully…
In this work, we study the problem of actively classifying the attributes of dynamical systems characterized as a finite set of Markov decision process (MDP) models. We are interested in finding strategies that actively interact with the…
We present an algorithm that can efficiently compute a broad class of inferences for discrete-time imprecise Markov chains, a generalised type of Markov chains that allows one to take into account partially specified probabilities and other…
Necessary and sufficient conditions are given for a substochastic semigroup on $L^1$ obtained through the Kato--Voigt perturbation theorem to be either stochastic or strongly stable. We show how such semigroups are related to piecewise…
Stochastic chains represent a wide and key variety of phenomena in many branches of science within the context of Information Theory and Thermodynamics. They are typically approached by a sequence of independent events or by a memoryless…
Various and ubiquitous information systems are being used in monitoring, exchanging, and collecting information. These systems are generating massive amount of event sequence logs that may help us understand underlying phenomenon. By…
We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we…
We provide a new algorithm for solving Risk Sensitive Partially Observable Markov Decisions Processes, when the risk is modeled by a utility function, and both the state space and the space of observations is finite. This algorithm is based…
We study a class of multi-stage stochastic programs, which incorporate modeling features from Markov decision processes (MDPs). This class includes structured MDPs with continuous action and state spaces. We extend policy graphs to include…
The paper is devoted to a systematic study of the duality of processes in the sense that $E f(X_t^x,y)=E f (x, Y_t^y)$ for a certain $f$. This classical topic has well known applications in interacting particles, intertwining,…
Mean-field models approximate large stochastic systems by simpler differential equations that are supposed to approximate the mean of the larger system. It is generally assumed that as the stochastic systems get larger (i.e., more people or…
We demonstrate the effectiveness of the categorical distribution as a neural network output for next event prediction. This is done for both discrete-time and continuous-time event sequences. To model continuous-time processes, the…
The Markov assumption (MA) is fundamental to the empirical validity of reinforcement learning. In this paper, we propose a novel Forward-Backward Learning procedure to test MA in sequential decision making. The proposed test does not assume…
The goal of this paper is to analyze distributional Markov Decision Processes as a class of control problems in which the objective is to learn policies that steer the distribution of a cumulative reward toward a prescribed target law,…
We present an investigation of stochastic evolution in which a family of evolution equations in $L^1$ are driven by continuous-time Markov processes. These are examples of so-called piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP's) on the…
This position paper reflects on the state-of-the-art in decision-making under uncertainty. A classical assumption is that probabilities can sufficiently capture all uncertainty in a system. In this paper, the focus is on the uncertainty…
Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) form a prominent model for uncertainty in sequential decision making. We are interested in constructing algorithms with theoretical guarantees to determine whether the agent has a…